[SMM Analysis] China’s NPI Imports Projected to Continue Falling in December Amid the Off-season

According to customs data, China's nickel iron imports totaled 895,500 mt in physical content in November 2025, down 1.1% MoM but up 1.4% YoY.

In metal content terms, total nickel iron imports rose 0.1% MoM and increased 1.7% YoY in November. Cumulative nickel iron imports from January to November grew 9.7% MoM and surged 27.2% YoY, while cumulative imports in metal content rose 9.7% MoM and increased 24.9% YoY.

By category, NPI imports decreased in November, while FeNi imports increased. Entering the traditional off-season, end-use demand remained sluggish, with stainless steel enterprises cutting demand. Meanwhile, NPI prices declined during the off-season, gradually approaching cost lines in November, leading some upstream players to hold back cargoes. Weakness on both supply and demand sides drove NPI imports down 1.2% MoM, though they still rose 2.1% YoY. Cumulative NPI imports from January to November increased 9.7% MoM and climbed 28.6% YoY. Although FeNi imports rose MoM, actual import volumes remained low, dropping 19.4% YoY.

Entering December, amid the traditional off-season and year-end atmosphere, procurement demand from downstream enterprises is relatively subdued, with production cut plans on both supply and demand sides. Nickel pig iron imports are expected to continue declining in December.