Vale lowers its forecast for iron ore production in 2026

Published: Dec 8, 2025 10:49

Save

The company expects to produce 335-345 million tons next year

Brazilian mining company Vale has lowered its forecast for iron ore production in 2026 to 335-345 million tons, according to a company statement.

The previous forecast was 340-360 million tons. This year, the company expects production to reach approximately 335 million tons.

Sinter production is expected to reach 31 million tons in 2025, 30-34 million tons in 2026, and grow to 60-70 million tons by 2030.

As for sales, the volume of medium-grade Carajás ore is forecast to reach 33 million tons in 2025 and 50 million tons in 2026. Sales of PFC (Pellet Feed China) products will reach 26 million tons this year and 40 million tons next year.

As a reminder, at the end of 2024, Vale achieved its highest iron ore production level since 2018 – 327.67 million tons, which is 2% more than a year earlier. Pellet production increased by 1.2% y/y – to 36.89 million tons.

As reported by GMK Center, CEO Gustavo Pimenta said that Vale is preparing to meet the growing demand for iron ore from India, which could double its steel production by the end of the decade.

In his opinion, increased sales to this country and other Asian markets will help compensate for stagnant demand from China, where steel production has remained at around 1 billion tons in recent years and may decline slightly. India will import approximately 10 million tons of Vale ore in 2025.

Source: https://gmk.center/en/news/vale-lowers-its-forecast-for-iron-ore-production-in-2026/

iron ore Vale

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

4 hours ago

Vietnam Imposes 27.83% Temporary Tariff on Certain Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Products

On April 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 612/QD-BCT, imposing a temporary anti-circumvention tariff of up to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products from China. The measure applies to specific flat-rolled steel products (alloy or non-alloy), with thicknesses of 1.2–25.4mm and widths between 1,880mm and 2,300mm, that have not been further processed beyond hot rolling.

4 hours ago

Risks in the Ferrous Metals Sector Began to Accumulate [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

4 hours ago

MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (April 3)

Today, the DCE iron ore fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 eventually closing at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.50% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand; as of now, spot market transactions were mediocre.

4 hours ago