Spot silicon metal prices remain deadlocked, polysilicon market largely stable [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Conference Minutes]

SMM December 3 News:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices remained stable this week. The average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/mt, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia was about 1,260 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/mt, and the average price of pellet coal was about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: The pace remained to produce based on sales, but with the overall downstream demand shrinking, the operating rate of coal washing plants also declined.

Demand: Some silicon plants in north China resumed a small amount of production this week, boosting demand for silicon coal, but the increase was limited. Meanwhile, some silicon plants in south-west China had halted production by the end of November, leading to a corresponding contraction in raw material demand. Overall, demand still showed a contraction.

Silicon Metal

Price: SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt. Yesterday afternoon, silicon metal futures prices fell, with the SI2601 contract settling at 8,975 yuan/mt at the close, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous day. Purchasing sentiment among downstream users was poor in recent days, and spot silicon prices were deadlocked.

Production:

The operating rates of silicon metal plants diverged between the north and south. Silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan continued their production cuts pace during the dry season, with operating rates continuing a downward trend. Individual enterprises in the north increased or resumed production, leading to a rise in operating rates. Considering these offsetting changes, silicon metal production in December is expected to be basically flat compared to November.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 550,000 mt on November 27, an increase of 2,000 mt WoW. This included 129,000 mt in general social warehouses, flat WoW, and 421,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including portions not registered as warrants and spot cargo), an increase of 2,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,100-13,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Against the backdrop of monomer enterprises' emission reduction and expectations of continued firm price holding, downstream customers' purchasing enthusiasm was stimulated. Furthermore, SMM learned that an industry meeting will be held again on the 4th of this month to further discuss emission reduction and price support matters. This has also improved the market transaction atmosphere.

D4: The quotation yesterday was 13,100-14,100 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 13,700-14,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,000-14,200 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone Oil: Yesterday’s quotes were 14,600-14,800 yuan/mt, WoW stable.

Production:

Under joint emission-reduction expectations, monomer operating rates are set to decline.

Inventory:

This week monomer enterprise inventory edged down, while downstream procurement sentiment improved.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon is quoted at 49.7-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 52 yuan/kg. The overall market remains largely stable. A few polysilicon enterprises still intend to hold quotes firm, top-tier enterprises continue to slow deliveries against futures, and repeated downstream price cuts are exerting some pressure on spot polysilicon.

Production:

November polysilicon production is expected at 114,600 mt; Sichuan and Yunnan are following their normal seasonal shutdown schedule. December output is forecast to be largely stable, with Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia likely to see offsetting increases and decreases.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory rose slightly this week. Wafer makers’ buying enthusiasm is limited, yet some earlier low-price orders are being shipped, leading to a modest inventory buildup.

Wafer

Price:

Market prices for 18X wafers are 1.15-1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers 1.18-1.25 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers 1.48-1.55 yuan/piece. Low-end prices for 210R and 210N still have room to fall, while 183 appears to have bottomed in the near term.

Production:

Wafer makers will sharply cut output in December by about 16%. Survey data show this round of cuts is not driven by disorderly competition but is a rational decision forced by weak domestic demand and high procurement costs.

Inventory:

Both wafer and solar cell plants are seeing inventory buildup; however, cell plants are in a pronounced bargaining mood and have temporarily lowered restocking interest, trimming working inventory by roughly 5-7 days. Overall wafer inventory remains below a reasonable level.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price:

Current domestic prices are 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt for mid-layer sand, and 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand. Domestic prices are falling; negotiations for imported sand have entered a second phase and remain deadlocked, with declines also expected.

Production:

Domestic high-purity quartz sand output will drop markedly in December, partly due to seasonal factors and partly because crucible supply is shrinking in line with lower wafer production schedules, weakening demand and prompting enterprises to trim output to match supply and demand.

Inventory

The inventory level of quartz sand increased slightly, and the purchase volume of crucible enterprises decreased.