【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Nov 28

Nickel Ore

In this week, Indonesian nickel ore prices remained stable this week. In terms of benchmark prices, Indonesia’s domestic nickel ore benchmark for the first half of October was USD 14,999 per dry metric ton, down 0.51% from the previous period. For premiums, according to SMM data on Indonesia’s domestic laterite nickel ore premiums, 1.4% grade averaged USD 22, 1.5% grade averaged USD 25.5, and 1.6% grade averaged USD 26. The delivered price for 1.6% Ni laterite ore in Indonesia was USD 51.5–53.5 per wet metric ton, decrease by USD 0.2 per wet metric ton. For hydrometallurgical ore, the delivered price for 1.3% Ni remained stable at USD 24–26 per wet metric ton, unchanged from last week.

• Pyrometallurgical Ore:

In the pyrometallurgical sector, on the supply side, parts of Sulawesi have entered the rainy season, with significantly increased rainfall disrupting production at some mines. Moving towards end of the year, several mines with larger RKAB will keep increasing the production, meanwhile some mines with limited RKAB quota have a limited production. Overall, the supply of nickel ore is relatively still sufficient. On the demand side, NPI smelters’ procurement demand has stabilized, though purchasing enthusiasm has slightly softened compared with previous peak weeks. Regarding RKAB Approval, most of Indonesian mining companies remain in the submission and evaluation stages, with no new approvals seen recently. With HMA prices for early December expected to weaken, pyrometallurgical ore prices may face downward pressure. With HMA prices for early December expected to weaken, pyrometallurgical ore prices may face downward pressure.

• Hydrometallurgical Ore:

The limonite market also remained relatively stable this week, with only limited inter-island shipping activity observed. On the demand side, smelters have expressed a willingness to push prices lower, due to the sufficient nickel ore inventory of 1-2 months until end of the year. However, given that limonite prices have already been declining continuously, the scope for further price reductions appears limited.

This week’s headline news centered on IMIP Industrial Park. The Indonesian Navy intercepted two vessels belonging to PT DMS that were transporting nickel ore to PT IMIP Morowali. The ships were found to be committing multiple violations, including loading at a jetty that had been sealed, operating without movement permits, and lacking valid vessel and cargo documentation. Both vessels were escorted to Lanal Kendari for further legal investigation. While the incident itself has limited direct impact on the broader nickel supply chain, it signals increasingly strict government oversight, raising concerns that supply risks may emerge ahead of next year’s RKAB approval cycle

Nickel Pig Iron

“Guided by Tender Prices, Market Activity Rebounds; High-Grade NPI Price Decline Slows”

The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price fell by RMB 11.5 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 885.8 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index dropped by USD 1.04 per nickel unit to USD 109.84 per nickel unit. During the traditional off-season, some procurement demand was released under the guidance of major steel mills. However, end-user consumption remains weak, market confidence is lacking, and high-grade NPI prices have dropped to a five-year low. From the supply side, High-grade NPI prices have now fallen to the cash-cost level for Indonesian smelters. Upstream producers are withholding quotations, showing clear price-supporting intentions, and only a small number of spot trades by traders are occurring. On the demand side, End-user consumption remains sluggish under off-season pressure. After mainstream stainless-steel mills announced their tender guidance prices, they gradually released procurement demand, but overall buying interest remains weak.Overall, market activity has improved under steel mill pricing guidance, and although high-grade NPI remains under pressure from weak seasonal demand, its rate of decline is expected to slow. Although auxiliary material costs may fall slightly to next week, high grade NPI prices are still expected to remain weak, and smelter margins will likely remain under pressure.