[SMM Analysis] Chromium Market Operated Steadily During National Day Holiday, Prices Remain Supported Under Post-Holiday Supply-Demand Tight Balance

October 9, 2025:

The chrome market largely operated steadily during the National Day holiday. Ferrochrome producers maintained normal production, having mostly completed raw material stocking in advance, resulting in limited demand for chrome ore purchases and mediocre inquiry transactions. Meanwhile, affected by the closure of the downstream stainless steel market, purchase willingness for ferrochrome was not strong, with overall sentiment largely in a wait-and-see mode, and prices saw no adjustments. Considering that ferrochrome supply and demand maintain a tight balance, prices remain supported, and the market is expected to maintain a steady operation trend after the holiday.

(I) Holiday Market Review of the Ferrochrome Market

Price Level: Inner Mongolia high-carbon ferrochrome offers were flat at 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); ex-factory prices for high-carbon ferrochrome in Sichuan and north-west China were 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); high-carbon ferrochrome offers in east China were 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); South African high-carbon ferrochrome offers were 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome offers were 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The October steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome rising by 200 yuan to 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content) boosted market confidence to some extent, driving spot ferrochrome prices to fluctuate at highs. However, as most downstream stainless steel mills had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, purchase sentiment was mediocre amid the market closure during the holiday, with demand not apparent, leading to no price adjustments.

Cost Level: Ferrochrome smelting costs remained stable during the holiday, as prices for key raw materials—chrome ore, coke, and electricity prices—showed no significant fluctuations. Considering that chrome ore shipments and port inventories fluctuate at highs, the actual surplus issue is gradually becoming prominent, suppressing the room for ore price increases. Coupled with the successive arrival of previously booked low-priced futures, ferrochrome producers were able to replenish raw material inventories, resulting in relatively limited demand for chrome ore purchases, with situations of driving down prices through counteroffers being common. Ore prices are expected to be largely stable after the holiday, with minimal fluctuations in ferrochrome smelting costs, allowing producers to maintain profitability.

Supply-Demand Level: High-carbon ferrochrome overall maintains a tight balance, with supply growth slower than downstream demand growth, supporting prices to hold steady at high levels, and most producers hold a bullish sentiment towards the future market. On the supply side, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in September fell short of expectations, edging down 1.9% MoM, primarily due to production halts or cuts by some producers in Inner Mongolia in the north, while producers in southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi utilized the advantage of rainy season electricity prices and peak-shaving production, leading to a slight production increase of 0.53% MoM. Meanwhile, according to China Customs statistics, China's total high-carbon ferrochrome imports in August were 159,100 mt, a significant decrease of 29.9% MoM. Overseas, especially the ferrochrome smelting operations of Glencore in South Africa, remain suspended, and subsequent imports are expected to remain low. Overall ferrochrome supply remains relatively tight, prompting ferrochrome producers to continue refusing to budge on prices. Demand side, entering the September-October peak season, the downstream stainless steel market gradually recovered, with production up 3.02% MoM and up 5.79% YoY, leading to a 2.54% increase in chromium demand, supporting ferrochrome prices to fluctuate at highs.

Post-holiday forecast: According to South African customs statistics, South Africa's total high-carbon ferrochrome exports in August 2025 were 80,400 mt, down 33.8% MoM and down 73.7% YoY; exports to China were 38,200 mt, down 66.8% YoY; exports to Mozambique were 4,800 mt, down 96.1% YoY. With overseas imports remaining low, a supply gap for ferrochrome emerged, pushing prices higher and expanding profit margins, prompting domestic producers to actively ramp up production. Ferrochrome output in October is expected to hit a record high. Meanwhile, driven by the peak consumption season, the downstream stainless steel market's planned production continues to rise, boosting chromium demand accordingly. Under conditions of robust supply and demand, the ferrochrome market is expected to operate steadily.

(II) Chrome Ore Market Holiday Review

Price Level: Chrome ore prices remained unchanged during the holiday. Spot offers at Tianjin port for 40-42% South African concentrate were 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore at 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore at 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate at 66-67 yuan/mtu. For futures, offers for 40-42% South African concentrate were $280-284/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were $345-355/mt. Following concentrated pre-holiday stockpiling by ferrochrome producers, actual chrome ore transactions quieted down, and offers showed no significant fluctuations.

Supply and Demand Level: The chrome ore surplus became increasingly evident, somewhat curbing further price increases, yet high ferrochrome output maintains rigid demand for chrome ore, supporting stable ore prices. Supply side, global chrome ore shipments in September 2025 exceeded 3 million mt, up 33.45% MoM from August. According to South African customs data, South Africa's total chrome ore exports in August were 2.1803 million mt, down 1.6% MoM but up 32.3% YoY; exports to China were 1.1733 million mt, up 28.3% MoM and up 68.3% YoY. China's total chrome ore imports in August were 2.0994 million mt, up 6.3% MoM and up 34.4% YoY. Concurrently, port inventories fluctuated around the 3 million mt high level, increasing pressure on traders holding cargo; some traders slightly lowered offers to avoid inventory buildup risks and to realize funds promptly. On the demand side, domestic ferrochrome producers are actively maintaining production while preserving profit margins, with output fluctuating within the high range of 790,000-820,000 mt. However, subsequent demand for chrome ore purchases has yet to be fully released.

Post-holiday forecast: During the National Day holiday, ferrochrome producers maintained normal operations, primarily consuming their existing inventory. After the holiday, as raw material inventories are depleted, there may be some release of demand for chrome ore purchases. Supported by high planned production of ferrochrome, the chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily.