ICSG: Global Refined Copper Market to Face a Supply Deficit of 150,000 mt Next Year

Published: Oct 9, 2025 13:57

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The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on October 7, 2025. Government representatives and industry advisors from major copper-producing and copper-consuming countries worldwide attended to discuss key issues affecting the global copper market. The following is the ICSG's assessment of the global refined copper supply-demand balance:

Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 1.4% in 2025, with growth projected to rise to 2.3% in 2026.

The growth rate for global copper mine production in 2025 has been revised down from the 2.3% forecast in April 2025 to 1.4%, primarily due to significant accidents at the Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa (DRC) mines, which negatively impacted production.

Growth is mainly attributed to increased production at the Kamoa mine (prior to the accident), the expansion project at Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), and the production ramp-up at the new Malmyz mine (Russia).

The growth rate is projected to increase to 2.3% in 2026, benefiting from the continued release of newly expanded capacity in several countries, expected improvements in production in Chile, Peru, and Zambia, and the recovery of operational rates in Indonesia.

Over these two years, a series of relatively small expansion projects and the commissioning of several small and medium-sized mines will also contribute to global production growth, particularly in the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco.

Global refined copper production is expected to grow by approximately 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.

In 2025, refined copper production is projected to increase by about 3.4%, supported mainly by continued capacity expansion in China, the commissioning of new capacity in several other countries including the DRC, India, and Indonesia, and improved operational rates in Zambia.

Overall, primary refined copper production (from concentrates and hydrometallurgy) is expected to grow by 3%, while secondary refined copper production (from scrap) is projected to increase by 4.5%.

In 2026, global refined copper production is expected to increase slightly by 0.9%. Although refined production will continue to benefit from new capacity and capacity ramping-up, growth in primary electrolytic refined copper production will be constrained by tight concentrate supply, partially offsetting increases in hydrometallurgical and secondary (from scrap) production.

Due to new and expanded capacity in several countries, hydrometallurgical production is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2026, while secondary refined copper production (from scrap) is expected to increase by 6%.

Global refined copper apparent consumption is expected to grow by approximately 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.

The global refined copper consumption growth rate for 2025 is projected at 3%. China's consumption is expected to increase by about 3.3% in 2025, while consumption in the rest of the world is projected to grow by 2.5%.

In 2026, the global refined copper consumption growth rate is expected to slow down to approximately 2.1%, mainly influenced by a decline in China's consumption growth rate to 1%. China currently accounts for about 58% of global refined copper consumption.

Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, while demand in other major copper-consuming regions is expected to remain weak, particularly in the European Union and Japan.

However, overall, global consumption is expected to continue to be supported by improved manufacturing activity in some key copper end-use sectors, ongoing demand from the energy transition, urbanization, digitalization (data centers), and the development of new semi-finished product capacity in India and several other countries.

The global refined copper balance forecast indicates a supply surplus of approximately 178,000 mt in 2025 and a supply deficit of 150,000 mt in 2026.

The ICSG recognizes that the global market balance may differ from the forecast due to numerous factors that could alter production and consumption projections. In this context, it should be noted that, in the recent past, actual market balance outcomes have deviated from the ICSG's market balance forecasts due to unforeseen developments.

When calculating the global market balance, the ICSG's calculation of China's apparent demand does not account for changes in unreported inventory (including stocks held by the State Reserve Bureau, producers, consumers, traders, and in bonded zones). These changes can be significant during periods of government stockpiling or destocking and can substantially alter the global supply-demand balance. China's copper apparent demand is calculated solely based on reported data.

The ICSG expects a surplus of approximately 178,000 mt in 2025, slightly lower than its forecast made in April this year. For 2026, a deficit of about 150,000 mt is currently projected, compared to an April forecast of a 209,000 mt surplus. This shift to a deficit is attributed to refined copper production being lower than previously expected, constrained by reduced copper concentrate supply.

The next meeting of the International Copper Study Group is scheduled for April 2026 in Lisbon.

Please note that this news is sourced from https://m-q-news.wenhua.com.cn/newshare/#/share/20251008000140?ver=7.4.1 and translated by SMM.

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