Polysilicon Prices Remain Stable, PV Module Prices Under Pressure [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM September 15:

Silicon Metal

Price

Silicon metal prices strengthened WoW. On Friday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract closed at 8,745 yuan/mt on Friday, with thin market transactions. This week, the downstream polysilicon industry meeting may affect silicon metal market sentiment, with attention on the meeting results and downstream stocking pace before the National Day holiday.

Production

Operating capacity in northern China increased in September from August, with national silicon metal production maintaining growth.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that silicon metal social inventory in major regions totaled 539,000 mt on September 11, up 2,000 mt WoW. This included 119,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 420,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), flat WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.1-54 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index at 51.26 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon at 48-49 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable over the weekend, with new monthly market transactions not yet fully commenced. Stockpiling is common in the PV main material segment, leading to moderate demand earlier, but concerns about future demand remain. An industry meeting will be held again soon, with market focus on the results.

Production

Polysilicon plants saw mixed production changes in September, with overall output showing limited fluctuation MoM from August, and limited reduction in Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, expectations for production cuts in some parts of south-west China in October may lead to output decline, but a surplus risk is still expected.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory has been rising recently, with crystal pulling plants slowing procurement. In the near term, polysilicon output may still exceed demand, with high inventory pressure.

Module

Price

Recently, module enterprises maintained stability temporarily. After raw material prices rose, module prices faced pressure due to poor acceptance by end-users, with psychological expected prices for some tender projects declining recently. However, on the cost side, solar cell prices rose significantly, and auxiliary material prices remained high, further increasing module cost pressure. Gaming sentiment is expected to intensify shortly. Current distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.678 yuan/W, 0.7 yuan/W, and 0.682 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.667 yuan/W and 0.682 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Module scheduled production in September is expected to decrease slightly from the forecast, with some top-tier enterprises planning appropriate production cuts. Overall production in September is projected to be reduced by approximately 1 GW.

Inventory

Weekly inventory levels remained largely stable, with just-in-time procurement for some projects.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices for inner-layer sand are 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices have remained stable recently, while imported sand prices decreased slightly. Domestic traders showed a strong willingness to sell at lower margins, with the mainstream spot order transaction price for imported sand falling to around 90,000 yuan/mt. Further declines are anticipated.

Production

Domestic sand enterprises maintained stable operations, with expectations for increased overseas supply.

Inventory

Sand enterprise inventory increased slightly, while crucible enterprises' willingness to conclude transactions declined recently.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: Quotes for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass were 19.5-21 yuan/m², with prices rising.

3.2mm double-layer coating: Quotes for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass were 20.5-22 yuan/m², with prices rising.

2.0mm single-layer coating: Quotes for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass were 12.7-14 yuan/m². Transactions became widespread recently, with the benchmark maintained at 13 yuan/m², but rising prices increased resistance among module enterprises, leading to a decline in transactions.

2.0mm double-layer coating: Quotes for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass were 13.7-15 yuan/m², with prices stable.

Production

PV glass production in September is expected to decrease slightly due to fewer production days, but rising prices have increased the willingness to start production among some completed but idle furnaces, indicating a potential upward trend in future output.

Inventory

Glass inventory remained stable, with order intake beginning to decline for some top-tier enterprises. Inventory levels at glass enterprises are expected to increase slightly this month.