SHFE Tin Price Jumps Initially and Then Pulls Back Resilient Performance Amid Mine Bottlenecks and Macro Pressures [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

At midday on August 20, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 266,820 yuan/mt, up 0.12% from the previous day, showing a pattern of jumping initially and then pulling back. The intraday price fluctuation range widened to 266,300-269,620 yuan/mt, with signs of continued capital reduction and withdrawal. Meanwhile, LME tin prices were slightly weaker, with the LME tin contract reporting at $33,720/mt at noon, down 0.15%, having touched an intraday high of $33,775/mt. This was mainly due to supply disruptions in Southeast Asian tin mines and support from low inventories, with LME tin inventory remaining at an absolute low of 1,830 mt, highlighting the tight spot market.

The core contradiction in the industry chain still focuses on the supply side. The resumption of production at Myanmar's Wa State tin mines has been delayed, affected by the rainy season, earthquakes, and mine preparation, with actual ore output expected to be postponed until Q4, leading to low levels of tin ore imports into China. Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi continue to face pressure from raw material shortages, with the TC for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan maintaining a historical low of 11,000 yuan/mt. Some smelters have a capacity utilization rate of only 30%-40%, with raw material inventories below 30 days, forcing them to cut production through maintenance to barely sustain operations. On the demand side, there is a "divergence between new and old momentum." Demand for high-purity tin in emerging sectors, such as semiconductor packaging solder, remains robust, supported by the expansion of computing power; however, weakness in traditional sectors drags down overall consumption. Orders for PV welding strips have declined following the end of the mid-year installation rush, while traditional segments like home appliances and tinplate are constrained by the off-season and uncertainties in overseas trade. Downstream solder companies are restocking primarily based on small, essential orders, with limited acceptance of high prices, and no significant increase in spot transactions.

It is expected that the most-traded SHFE tin contract will maintain a fluctuation range of 255,000-275,000 yuan/mt in the short term, with the LME tin fluctuation range referenced at $31,000-$34,000/mt. Investors are advised to operate with light positions, paying attention to the pace of mine resumptions and the actual strength of emerging demand.