On the eve of the US Fed's June interest rate meeting, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to exhibit a volatile pattern [SMM Tin Futures Brief Comment]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract for June 18, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued its sideways movement, closing at 265,010 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.28% intraday, but still down 0.2% over the past five days.

In the spot market, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar has been slow. Although some miners have applied to resume production, strict approval processes, coupled with transportation restrictions during the rainy season, have kept actual imports at a low level. Meanwhile, Thailand's policy of banning Myanmar from using its territory for tin ore transportation has exacerbated supply tightness, expected to impact domestic monthly supply by 500-1,000 mt (metal content).

Smelters in major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi in China have maintained low-capacity operations due to raw material shortages. TCs have fallen to their lowest level in nearly five years, with some enterprises even planning maintenance or production cuts.

Traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and automotive electronics have entered the off-season, with orders mainly characterized by "small batches and multiple shipments." Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high prices, and purchases are only made to meet immediate needs.

Macro sentiment remains cautious: Ahead of the US Fed's June interest rate meeting, the market is sensitive to interest rate policies and US dollar fluctuations. If the US Fed signals a "hawkish" stance, a stronger US dollar may suppress LME tin prices; conversely, if the tone is dovish, tin prices may find some relief.

In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to fluctuate rangebound between 258,000-270,000 yuan/mt.

For LME tin, the expected short-term fluctuation range is $31,000-33,000/mt. Amidst low inventory and macro pressures, a directional breakthrough requires stronger drivers.