[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On June 17, nickel prices fell sharply due to the impact of volatile external macro environment, with LME nickel prices under pressure simultaneously

SMM Nickel News on June 17:

Macro News:

(1) Tariffs - ① Trump announced that the UK and the US had signed a trade agreement, and Lutnick would decide on the exemption quotas for steel and aluminum tariffs. ② Reports stated that the EU was prepared to conditionally accept a uniform 10% tariff imposed by the US, with the EU calling the claim speculative. ③ India and the US planned to sign an interim agreement by July 9. ④ During the G7 Summit, the leaders of Japan and the US held a brief meeting, with the progress of trade negotiations remaining unclear. ⑤ Trump stated that the US-Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada expressed that export tariffs on Canadian goods should be eliminated.

(2) On Monday, Eastern Time, US President Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer jointly announced that they had finalized the general terms of the trade agreement reached last month. The agreement covers trade terms for steel, ethanol, automobiles, and beef. The US plans to set a quota of 100,000 units per year for British automobile imports, with a tariff rate of 10%. The UK has committed to expanding market access for US beef, ethanol, grains, and some industrial products.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 118,500-121,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 119,825 yuan/mt, a decrease of 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,500-2,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums and discounts of electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is 0-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

Affected by the volatile external macro environment, nickel prices accelerated their decline. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) moved downwards after a higher opening and remained in the doldrums: it opened at 119,740 yuan/mt, up slightly by 70 yuan/mt, but quickly fell during the session, reaching a low of 118,150 yuan/mt. As of 11:30, SHFE nickel closed at 118,520 yuan/mt, down 1,150 yuan/mt or 0.96% from the previous trading day. LME nickel was also under pressure, temporarily quoted at $15,000/mt.

In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound between 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt. If Indonesia tightens its nickel ore policies, it may trigger a phased rebound. However, in the medium and long term, the pressure from supply surplus is difficult to resolve, coupled with a lack of incremental demand, limiting the upside room for nickel prices.