Affected by the situation in the Middle East in recent days, international gold prices have strengthened in the short term.
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On Friday, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.47%, accumulating a 3.18% increase for the week. After three consecutive days of strong gains, it has approached its previous high.
On the news front, according to CCTV International News, on the morning of June 14 local time, the Israeli military stated that it had detected a fifth round of missile attacks launched by Iran and was intercepting them. This indicates that the conflict is ongoing.
In the short term, geopolitical risks continue to boost market risk-averse sentiment, potentially providing further support for gold prices. Bank of America expects gold to rise to $4,000 per ounce within the next 12 months.
Guojin Futures had previously also stated that the escalation of tensions in the Middle East would drive up gold prices. Although gold had seen some adjustments earlier, the downside potential was relatively small, with prices being constrained within a certain range over the long term. Hot topics will have an impact on gold prices.
It is worth mentioning that a recent report by the European Central Bank showed that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset among global central banks, underscoring that gold, as a safe-haven asset, remains favored by global central banks.
According to the European Central Bank's annual report on "The International Role of the Euro," the US dollar accounted for 46% of global foreign exchange reserves in 2024, a slight decrease from the previous year. The report stated that the share of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has significantly increased to 20%, surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally. This indicates that central banks tend to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and strive to mitigate geopolitical risks.
Goldman Sachs also stated that the structurally strong gold-buying behavior of central banks will drive gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
Overall, as the situation in the Middle East unfolds, geopolitical risks may also become a key factor influencing the short-term trend of gold prices, causing them to hold up well.
