Aluminum Ingot Inventory Declines Amid Tight Supply and Resilient Consumption

Published: Jun 12, 2025 17:49

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According to SMM statistics, as of June 12, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 460,000 mt, a decrease of 17,000 mt from Monday this week and a decline of 44,000 mt WoW from Thursday last week. The core driver of destocking lies in the continued tightness on the supply side. Strategic adjustments by aluminum smelters in multiple northern regions and some aluminum smelters in south-west China have led to a MoM decrease in casting ingot volumes. Coupled with the consistently low volumes of aluminum ingots in transit and actual arrivals at major consumption hubs, this has collectively resulted in a tight supply of circulating goods. Although there are expectations of a slight increase in shipments from north-west China and inter-regional transfers due to price spreads, the short-term increase has not yet caused significant pressure. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a notable increase in arrivals in east China in the future. Meanwhile, the resilience of the consumption side, particularly in east China, has effectively absorbed the recent lower supply. Looking ahead, supported by low arrival volumes in the short term, inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. After a rapid breakthrough of the 500,000 mt threshold, close attention should be paid to whether it can successfully refresh the year's low of 440,000 mt, thereby further boosting market sentiment.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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