Resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region is slow; SHFE tin prices may fluctuate rangebound in the afternoon [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Published: Jun 10, 2025 11:33

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Slow Pace of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region; SHFE Tin Prices May Fluctuate Rangebound in the Afternoon] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened slightly higher this morning and then oscillated and pulled back. By the midday close, it was quoted at 264,020 yuan/mt, up 0.44% from the previous trading day. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with bulls and bears continuing to battle around the 264,000 yuan/mt mark. Slow Pace of Production Resumptions in Myanmar's Wa Region: Although the production resumption process was initiated at the end of April, the actual ramp-up time may be postponed to July due to strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and prolonged processing times for mining licenses. Market rumors suggest that the first batch of export licenses has been issued, but it will still take 1.5-2 months for ore to be transported to China, with port arrivals in June expected to decline significantly. Limited Increase in African Supply: Although the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has resumed production in phases, its 2025 production guidance has been revised down from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Moreover, with a shipping period of 45-60 days, the actual port arrivals in June will provide insufficient support for domestic smelting operations. Midday Summary: SHFE tin prices are short-term influenced by disruptions in ore supply and fluctuating macro sentiment. However, the off-season demand and inventory pressure limit the rebound height, and prices may fluctuate rangebound in the afternoon.

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 10, 2025

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened slightly higher this morning and then fluctuated rangebound and pulled back. By the lunchtime close, it was reported at 264,020 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.44% from the previous trading day. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with longs and shorts continuing to battle around the 264,000 yuan/mt mark.

Slow Resumption of Production in Myanmar's Wa Region: Although the production resumption process was initiated at the end of April, the actual ramp-up time may be postponed to July due to strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and extended processing times for mining licenses. Market rumors suggest that the first batch of export licenses has been issued, but it will still take 1.5-2 months for ore to be transported to China, with a significant decline expected in port arrivals in June.

Limited Increase in African Supply: Although the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has resumed production in phases, its 2025 production guidance has been revised down from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Moreover, the shipping period takes 45-60 days, and the actual port arrivals in June will provide insufficient support to the domestic smelting sector.

Lunchtime Summary: SHFE tin is short-term influenced by disruptions in ore supply and recurring macro sentiment, but the off-season demand and inventory pressure limit the rebound height. It may continue to fluctuate rangebound in the afternoon.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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