Tug-of-War at the 260,000 Threshold for the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract: Myanmar Mine Transportation Disruptions Hedge Against Off-Season Consumption [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Published: Jun 9, 2025 17:29

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[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Tug-of-War at the 260,000 Yuan/mt Mark for the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract; Myanmar Mine Shipments Hindered, Offsetting Off-Season Consumption] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) closed at 263,740 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of 0.31% and a cumulative five-day gain of 5.37%. In the spot market, however, affected by the off-season consumption, downstream purchase sentiment remained sluggish, and overall spot transactions were relatively quiet. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts heat up: US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, but ADP employment growth slowed down. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts diverged, putting pressure on the US dollar index and supporting the prices of non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars. Sino-US economic and trade relations ease: High-level trade consultations between the two countries sent positive signals, alleviating market concerns about tariff policy adjustments and leading to marginal improvements in macro sentiment.

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract as of June 9, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) closed at 263,740 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of 0.31% and a cumulative five-day gain of 5.37%. In the spot market, however, influenced by the off-season in consumption, downstream purchase sentiment remained sluggish, and overall spot transactions were relatively quiet.

Rising Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut: Although the US May non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, ADP employment growth slowed down, leading to divergent market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut. The US dollar index came under pressure, supporting the prices of non-ferrous metals priced in US dollars.

Easing Sino-US Economic and Trade Tensions: Positive signals were released during high-level trade consultations between the two countries, alleviating market concerns about adjustments to tariff policies and leading to marginal improvements in macro sentiment.

Myanmar's Production Resumptions Fall Short of Expectations: Although tin mines in the Wa region resumed production at the end of April, the actual customs clearance volume in May was only 21 mt, and no significant increase is expected in June. Actual capacity releases may be delayed until July-August.

Capacity Constraints in the DRC: Due to the aftermath of armed conflicts, the Bisie tin mine's capacity releases have been slow. Additionally, Thailand's suspension of transit transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar has made it difficult to fill the short-term supply gap in ore.

Demand Side: Off-Season Characteristics Emerge, Structural Differentiation Persists

Weakness in Consumer Electronics: Orders for terminal electronic products have shrunk, with solder tin enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs and having limited acceptance of high prices.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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