SMM: Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows [Indonesia Conference]

Published: Jun 9, 2025 11:01

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[Indonesia Conference | SMM: Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows] At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Coal Session, Dong Huanhuan, Senior Consultant of SMM, shared insights on "Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows". She pointed out that after reaching a record high in 2024, global coal production is expected to decline. In the future, coal demand will still be concentrated in Asian countries. The improvement of railway transport capacity will drive the future transportation and supply of Mongolian coal to countries such as China and India.

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Coal Session, Dong Huanhuan, a senior consultant at SMM, shared insights on "Changes and Outlook of Global Coal Trade Flows."

Global coal production, after reaching a record high in 2024, is expected to decline.

In 2024, global coal production exceeded 9 billion mt for the first time, hitting a new peak, but it is anticipated to gradually decrease in the coming years.

The main influencing factors are as follows:

The global energy transition is accelerating. The rapid development of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is gradually replacing coal as the primary source of electricity.

With the establishment of the "dual carbon" goals, some countries globally, such as Germany and the UK, have gradually restricted or phased out coal mining and usage.

The shift in the global economic development model and the increasing proportion of service and high-tech industries, which have relatively lower energy demands, have further curbed the growth of coal demand.

Prior to 2024, global coal production had been on a growth trajectory, but it is expected to decline by 2027, except in India.

In 2025, China's total coal production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend, while India will continue to experience rapid growth in the coming years. The Indian Ministry of Coal has set coal production targets: an increase of over 40% from the 2025-26 fiscal year to the 2029-30 fiscal year. In the next few years, other major coal-producing countries will maintain a downward trend in production.

SMM Panoramic Shipping Data: Coal Transportation in 2024

According to SMM's 2024 global coal shipping data, the coal transported by Indonesia and Colombia is mainly thermal coal and lignite used for power generation.

Australia, the US, Canada, and Russia are the major suppliers of coking coal, primarily serving consumers in the Asian steel industry.

Coal transportation is mainly related to each country's own resource and demand structure.

The presentation also elaborated on topics such as SMM Panoramic Shipping Data: Coal Transportation in 2022 - (Impact of Geopolitical Emergencies - 1), and SMM Panoramic Shipping Data: Coal Transportation in 2024 - (Impact of Geopolitical Emergencies - 2).

Future coal demand will still be concentrated in Asian countries.

Improved railway capacity will boost the transportation and supply of Mongolian coal to countries such as China and India in the future.

》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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