Short-term supply disruptions persist, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract likely to fluctuate around 260,000-275,000 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

Published: Jun 9, 2025 08:52

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[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Short-Term Supply Disruptions Persist, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract May Fluctuate Around 260,000-275,000 Yuan/mt] International Developments: - **US Policy Impact**: The trade protectionist policies (e.g., tariff hikes) that the Trump administration may implement could disrupt global supply chains, particularly limiting China's PV exports. However, rising expectations for US interest rate cuts (ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May) coupled with fiscal stimulus policies may drive economic recovery in H2, boosting demand for industrial metals. - **China's Policy Support**: China's ongoing "trade-in" policies continue to drive consumption of white goods and NEVs. Combined with RRR cuts by the PBOC, which released 1.175 trillion yuan in liquidity, these measures provide underlying support for industrial demand. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has been postponed until after May, and Indonesia's slow approval of tin export quotas have prolonged short-term supply disruptions. While increased ore output from Africa (e.g., the Mpama South project in the Congo) partially fills the gap, transportation bottlenecks limit actual port arrivals. Potential risks from US-China trade frictions and adjustments to Indonesia's nickel ore export policies may trigger market risk-aversion sentiment. - **Short-Term Constraints**: Domestic smelters' raw material inventories remain low, and tin concentrate prices have risen amid expectations of a ban on mining in Myanmar. - **Medium-Term Growth**: Tin mining projects in Africa (Congo, Rwanda) and South America (Peru) have commenced production, but declining ore grades and rising environmental protection costs have constrained the pace of capacity expansion. - **Fluctuate Upward**: Supported by delayed Indonesian exports, postponed production resumptions in Myanmar, and recovering semiconductor demand, the most-traded SHFE tin contract may fluctuate around 260,000-275,000 yuan/mt. ...

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on June 9, 2025

International Developments: Impact of US Policies: The trade protectionist policies (e.g., tariff hikes) that may be implemented by the Trump administration could disrupt the global supply chain, particularly limiting China's PV exports. However, the rising expectations of a US interest rate cut (with only 37,000 jobs added in the ADP employment report for May) coupled with fiscal stimulus policies are expected to boost economic recovery in H2, thereby stimulating demand for industrial metals. China's Policy Support: China's ongoing "trade-in" policy continues to drive consumption of white goods and NEVs. Coupled with RRR cuts by the PBOC, which released 1.175 trillion yuan in liquidity, this provides underlying support for industrial demand. Geopolitical Risks: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has been postponed until after May, and the approval of Indonesia's tin export quotas has been slow, leading to continued short-term supply disruptions. Increased ore output from Africa (e.g., the Mpama South project in the Congo) partially fills the gap, but transportation bottlenecks limit actual port arrivals. Potential risks, including US-China trade frictions and adjustments to Indonesia's nickel ore export policies, may trigger market risk-averse sentiment. Short-Term Constraints: Domestic smelters' raw material inventories remain low, and the expected ban on mining in Myanmar has driven up tin concentrate prices. Medium-Term Growth: Tin mining projects in Africa (Congo, Rwanda) and South America (Peru) are coming online, but declining ore grades and rising environmental protection costs are limiting the pace of capacity expansion. Fluctuate Upward: Supported by delayed Indonesian exports, postponed production resumptions in Myanmar, and recovering semiconductor demand, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate between 260,000 and 275,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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