This week, the global precious metals market has witnessed a historic moment. Following gold's breakthrough above $3,400 per ounce, silver has taken the lead in the gains. Currently, silver prices have surged past the $36 per ounce mark.
Note: Performance of COMEX silver
Driven by the soaring silver prices, the precious metals sector in the Hong Kong stock market has strengthened once again. As of press time, China Silver Group (00815.HK) has risen by 20.55%, China Gold International Resources (02099.HK) by 3.30%, Zijin Mining (02899.HK) by 2.23%, and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) by 2.22%.
Note: Performance of precious metals stocks in the Hong Kong stock market
In terms of news, the Trump administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% in early June, sparking market concerns that key metals could become the next target for tariff increases. As a core industrial metal in the new energy sector, silver's strategic value is being re-evaluated. Analysts point out that if the US imposes tariffs on silver-related industry chains, it could further exacerbate supply chain tensions.
Additionally, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for May fell below the 50 mark to 49.9, and the ADP employment data significantly missed expectations. Coupled with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's dovish stance, market expectations for a September interest rate cut by the US Fed have surged to 97.5%. Historical data shows that silver's price elasticity during interest rate cut cycles is significantly higher than that of gold. During the interest rate cut cycles from 2001-2003 and 2020-2021, silver prices rose by more than 50% in both periods.
Among the biggest beneficiaries of this silver rally is undoubtedly China Silver Group, a professional silver producer and comprehensive operator in China, with a business scope covering the entire industry chain of silver manufacturing, new jewelry retail, and silver trading.
Institutions say silver may enter a "super cycle"
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, pointed out that with the US dollar index falling to a two-year low and geopolitical risks reigniting, precious metals are experiencing a breakthrough rally. Given that silver's market size is only one-tenth that of gold, the same amount of capital inflows will trigger greater price volatility.
Guosen Futures believes that silver, with its dual attributes of being a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal, has greater room for valuation repair amid escalating trade frictions. If the US Fed initiates an interest rate cut cycle, silver's target price could potentially reach $40-50 per ounce.
