Guosen Securities: Domestic Air Conditioner Production Schedule Rises in H1 2025 Amid High Demand and Policy Drives

Published: Jun 4, 2025 11:55

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Guosen Securities released a research report stating that the production schedule data for domestic air conditioner sales in the first half of 2025 (H1) continued to rise. From January to February, production was reduced to accommodate exports, while production gradually increased in March. In addition to seasonal stockpiling factors, the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins also significantly contributed to this growth. In May, as the 618 shopping festival period approached and demand peaked, the production schedule showed strong growth. Driven by the high summer temperatures in the second quarter (Q2), refrigerant consumption entered the peak season, and trading activity gradually increased against the backdrop of low inventory levels. Looking ahead to the third quarter (Q3), with the continued implementation of the "trade-in policy" and enterprises entering maintenance cycles after high-load production in the first half of the year, it is expected that market prices will exhibit a monthly stepped increase in Q3, and the market is anticipated to further strengthen under mild stimulus.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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