The tin market is stuck between macro pressure and tight supply-demand balance [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

Published: Jun 3, 2025 09:14

Source: SMM

Save

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The Tin Market is Facing a Dual Game of Macro Pressure and Fundamental Tight Balance] Currently, the tin market is facing a dual game of macro pressure and fundamental tight balance. Internationally, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ in Q1, with core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, consumer confidence falling to a historical low, and the manufacturing PMI pulling back to 48.7, intensifying downward economic pressure. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time but emphasized rising risks of inflation and unemployment. The US dollar index's high volatility continued to suppress the valuation of non-ferrous metals. Domestically, refined tin production in May is expected to decline MoM. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is only 56.85%, with low TCs squeezing profits and leading to a persistent tight supply. Although the first batch of tin concentrates from the Bisie tin mine in the DRC was shipped on May 9, they will not enter the smelting process until June, making it difficult to alleviate inventory shortages in the short term. The production resumption progress in Myanmar's Wa region is slow, and Indonesia's export recovery has not yet reached significant volumes, so the supply gap in Q2 will persist. The weak demand trend has not improved. High tin ingot prices (SHFE tin spot prices remain at 240,000-265,000 yuan/mt) significantly suppress the restocking willingness of electronics/home appliance companies, and the blocked industry chain transmission further reduces scrap circulation. Structural bright spots are concentrated in the new energy sector—PV welding strips and NEVs...

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes June 3, 2025

The tin market is currently caught in a dual game of macro suppression and fundamental tight balance. Internationally, US Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% QoQ, core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%, consumer confidence hit record lows, and manufacturing PMI pulled back to 48.7, intensifying economic downward pressure. The US Fed kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive time but highlighted rising inflation and unemployment risks, with the US dollar index fluctuating at highs, continuing to suppress nonferrous metals sector valuations. Domestically, May refined tin production is expected to decline MoM, as Yunnan and Jiangxi smelters' operating rates stood at just 56.85%, with low TCs squeezing profits and sustaining tight supply. Although the first batch of tin concentrates from DRC's Bisie tin mine shipped on May 9, smelting won't commence until June, making short-term inventory relief unlikely. Slow production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State and unexpanded Indonesian exports will maintain Q2 supply deficits. Demand-side weakness persists. High-priced tin ingots (SHFE spot prices holding at 240,000-265,000 yuan/mt) significantly dampen restocking willingness among electronics/home appliance manufacturers, with industry chain transmission blockages further reducing scrap circulation. Structural bright spots concentrate in new energy sectors—PV welding strips and NEVs (per-unit tin consumption doubles traditional vehicles) provide demand support, though growth has slowed from 2023 levels, while traditional semiconductor solder demand remains weak due to peak industry cycles. Overall, the market shows a tight balance pattern with "supply reductions outpacing demand recovery."

Market review

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

Tight Supply Overlaid with Liquidity Tightening Expectations, SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates at Highs in Stagnant Trading [SMM Tin Midday Review]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tight Supply Conditions Combined with Expectations of Tightening Liquidity, SHFE Tin Contracts Consolidate at Highs in Stagnant Trading]

1 hour ago

3 hours ago

[SMM Tin News Flash: SpaceX Officially Filed IPO Application Without Disclosing Offering Size and Valuation]

SpaceX, owned by Musk, announced plans for the largest IPO in history, fully disclosing to investors the financial details of the company, which spans rocket launch, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence businesses. According to the prospectus filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday, the company reported sales of $4.7 billion and an operating loss of $1.9 billion for the first three months of this year. Musk will hold 85.1% of voting rights after the IPO. The company also plans to conduct mining operations on near-Earth asteroids. The filing also revealed that Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. Although the offering size and proposed valuation have not been disclosed, media previously reported that SpaceX had discussed raising approximately $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. SpaceX will be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.

3 hours ago

[SMM Tin News Flash: Yingqu Technology and Rongxin Zhiyuan Signed Strategic Cooperation Agreement on Domestic Computing Power Equipment Manufacturing]

On May 20, 2026, Inagist Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement on domestic computing power equipment manufacturing with Beijing Rongxin Zhiyuan Technology Co., Ltd. ("Rongxin Zhiyuan"). During the discussion and exchange phase, the two parties conducted in-depth discussions on the technical roadmap and future plans for domestic computing power servers, and reached a high degree of consensus on joint R&D, capacity coordination, and supply chain optimization.

3 hours ago