SMM Tin Morning News on May 30, 2025:
Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) fluctuated downward during the night session, with the price moving down to around 252,000 yuan/mt and closing at 251,810 yuan/mt, down 2.28% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) Cui Dongshu: From January to April this year, China accounted for 68% of the global new energy vehicle market and 12% of the overseas new energy vehicle market for domestic brands. (Bullish ★) (2) Ministry of Commerce: China urges the US to completely eliminate unilateral tariff hikes. (Bullish ★) (3) US Fed's Goolsbee: If tariffs are avoided through agreements or other means, the situation may return to one where interest rate cuts are possible. (4) Global Tariffs - ① The US Court of International Trade has halted Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy, and the Trump administration has filed a notice of appeal. ② Hassett: The tariff ruling will be overturned, and the ruling will not affect the progress of current trade agreements. ③ US Trade Advisor: The court ruling has not changed the course of events, and our side has a strong chance of winning. ④ Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru had a 25-minute phone call with Trump. Ishiba said he might visit the US before the G7 summit if necessary. ⑤ Indian officials: The US trade team will visit India from June 5 to 6, and trade negotiations are proceeding as planned. They are studying the impact of the US court ruling on tariff decisions. (Neutral)
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major producing areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may halt production for maintenance to address the shortage of raw materials. The market reacted strongly to rumors about the resumption of production and fee payments in the Wa region yesterday. According to SMM, few enterprises are currently paying fees to obtain mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most major ore traders have not paid the management fees. Moreover, inspections at the China-Myanmar border are strict, and the entry procedures for most large-scale equipment and relevant mining personnel are complicated. The current progress of production resumption in the Wa region is below market expectations. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: After the Labour Day holiday, some downstream processing enterprises gradually resumed work, and there was some release of low-price restocking demand. However, high-price transactions remained sluggish, and long-term spot market transactions were hindered. (Bearish ★★)
Spot Market: Spot transactions were relatively active yesterday. With the continuous decline in prices, the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end-user enterprises improved, and they began to make just-in-time procurement and small-scale restocking. Traders reported that transactions were relatively active yesterday, but overall trading volume fell short of expectations. Most trading enterprises sold more than one truckload yesterday, and a few sold over 100 mt.
