Alumina operating capacity rebounds, price rise channel blocked [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Comment]

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM May 24:

Last night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,175 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 20,175 yuan/mt and a low of 20,075 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,175 yuan/mt, up 0.05%. Trading volume stood at 56,000 lots, with open interest at 204,000 lots.

SMM Review: Macro front, the US dollar index rose 0.33% overnight to 99.94. The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending cut bill. On Thursday, US Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that if the Trump administration maintains tariffs on US trading partners at around 10%, the Fed may begin interest rate cuts in H2 2025. Fundamentals side, short-term supply-side changes remain relatively small. Cost side, the specific impact of the Guinea incident on local bauxite supply awaits assessment, potentially providing short-term sentiment-driven cost support for alumina. Demand side faces dual pressures of domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainty, with short-term operating rates at aluminum processing enterprises continuing to decline under pressure. Subsequent focus will be on whether downstream export orders can genuinely improve and offset weakening domestic demand expectations. Overall, current low inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but the lack of macro catalysts beyond expectations to further drive prices this week, coupled with off-season demand-side pressures limiting upside room, suggests spot aluminum ingot in mainstream consumption areas will face weak supply and demand. Short-term aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate rangebound, with attention on domestic and overseas demand performance, month-end inventory trends, and bauxite supply disruptions.

Last night, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,150 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 3,170 yuan/mt and a low of 3,102 yuan/mt, before closing at 3,103 yuan/mt, down 2.42%. Trading volume was 660,000 lots, with open interest at 390,000 lots.

SMM Review: This week saw maintenance at some enterprises in north China, while some alumina refineries in south China completed maintenance, leading to a rebound in operating capacity. Nationwide operating capacity increased by 1.09 million mt WoW. In the near term, new alumina enterprises are scheduled for maintenance, while some are expected to complete maintenance and resume operations, suggesting overall operating capacity will continue to rebound slightly. Amid bauxite supply disruption news, rising bauxite prices are expected to strengthen alumina cost support, coupled with a short-term fundamentals yet to shift to surplus, maintaining upward momentum. However, with supply recovery, alumina price gains may face resistance, likely holding up well in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.