What are the reasons for the increase in the coefficient of low-grade zinc oxide? [SMM Analysis]

From the raw material supply side, orders in the automotive and home appliance sectors remained robust in April and May, while demand from real estate and infrastructure projects was weak. Overall, steel mill orders were moderate, but with relatively good profits, steel mills had a high willingness to produce, and steel ash production did not decrease. However, as steel mills' recycling capacity improved, the zinc grade of steel ash declined. Additionally, starting in April, stricter standards for steel ash recycling and emissions were implemented, increasing the difficulty of purchasing raw materials. This led to an undersupply in the steel ash market, making it difficult for low-grade zinc oxide manufacturers to maintain a stable supply. Some low-grade zinc oxide enterprises halted production to accumulate raw materials starting from the Chinese New Year and only resumed production in May. Steel ash prices remained high, causing low-grade zinc oxide prices to rise.

From the demand side, according to SMM, after the Chinese New Year, zinc concentrate TCs continued to increase, and the supply of zinc ore gradually loosened. With sufficient raw materials at smelters, the demand for low-grade zinc oxide decreased. However, due to the persistently high prices of zinc slag, some zinc oxide enterprises purchased crude zinc as a raw material, leading to good overall sales of crude zinc. The demand for low-grade zinc oxide from secondary zinc enterprises increased, providing support for low-grade zinc oxide prices.

Looking ahead, the shortage of raw materials may not be alleviated in the short term. As the downstream off-season approaches, demand may weaken, and low-grade zinc oxide prices may stabilize in the future.