China's copper concentrates imports in April: unexpected yet reasonable [SMM analysis]

Published: May 22, 2025 19:43

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[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrates Imports in April: Unexpected Yet Reasonable] In April 2025, China's copper concentrates imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% on a cumulative YoY basis. It is not difficult to observe that from year-end 2024 to H1 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrates imports, driven by a significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, was reasonable. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates came as a surprise. We attribute the high volume of copper concentrates imports to the following factors.

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In April 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% year-to-date YoY. It is not surprising that the surge in copper concentrate imports was driven by the significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, as many copper smelters in China commissioned smelting capacity from year-end 2024 to H1 2025. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates warrants further analysis.

Chile & Peru & Mexico: In April 2025, China imported 851,000 mt of copper concentrates from Chile, up 18.52% YoY; 786,800 mt from Peru, up 38.88% YoY; and 141,200 mt from Mexico, up 28.35% YoY. On the one hand, according to SMM statistics, factors such as the exploitation of sulfide ores at Mantoverde, the continuous release of QB II capacity, increased production at Antapaccay, improved copper grade and flotation efficiency at Las Bambas, and increased production at Quellaveco in the Americas have laid a material foundation for the level of copper concentrates exported to China. On the other hand, the more frequent tender and bid activities between mines and traders/smelters from Q4 last year to Q1 this year have intensified the logistics distribution of copper concentrates originating from the Americas. China's advantage in treatment charges (TCs) has led to a greater share of copper concentrates flowing to China.

DRC: In April 2025, China imported 94,000 mt of copper concentrates from the DRC, up 83.36% YoY. This year, the DRC government's export restriction policy only targets cobalt and has not affected copper. Kamoa-Kakula is expected to increase copper production by 132,000 mt in metal content in 2025. With the execution of long-term contracts and spot transactions between the KK mine and Chinese smelters, more copper concentrates from the DRC are flowing into the Chinese market.

Indonesia: In April 2025, China imported 129,200 mt of copper concentrates from Indonesia, up 101.93% YoY. In March this year, the Indonesian government granted Freeport Indonesia a six-month copper concentrate export permit, allowing it to export copper concentrates during smelter maintenance, which will also ensure that the Indonesian government continues to receive royalties. Therefore, starting in April this year, Indonesian copper concentrates began to be allowed to flow to China with a shipping period of about half a month. It is worth noting that in March this year, China's copper concentrate imports from Indonesia were 0 mt.

Brazil: In April 2025, China imported 66,400 mt of copper concentrates from Brazil, up 76.9% YoY. In November 2024, Vale tendered tens of thousands of mt of Sossego spot positions to traders, with loading periods including Q1 2025.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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