Hot Topics in the Aluminum Market in April:
- Price Forecast: The center of aluminum prices is expected to pull back in May, with caution advised against weakening demand and macro uncertainties (P5)
- As we enter May, it will still take time for the transmission of domestic favorable policies in the macroeconomic aspect to take effect, and there is still no resolution to the tariff war, with bearish impacts persisting. On the fundamental side, the high operating rate of aluminum smelters and the supplement of imported supplies have led to a relatively loose domestic supply situation. The recent pullback in aluminum prices has stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment, and destocking has provided support for aluminum prices. On the demand side, the market and capital have strong expectations for weakening future demand, and the upward momentum for aluminum prices is insufficient. However, current consumption still shows resilience, providing some support for aluminum prices. It is expected that domestic aluminum prices will fluctuate considerably next month.
- Bauxite: In March, bauxite imports increased by 39% YoY. In April, the arrival of imported bauxite at ports remained high, with inventory buildup exceeding 4 million mt at ports (P6)
- Alumina: In April, the operating capacity of alumina decreased by 3.22% MoM. Driven by new investments and production resumptions, the operating capacity is expected to rebound by 1.1% MoM in May (P9)
- Aluminum: In April, there were new capacity replacement projects for domestic aluminum production, with overseas increases mainly coming from production resumptions (P15)
- Inventory: In April, the destocking performance of domestic aluminum ingots was remarkable, with arrivals during the Labour Day holiday lower than expected (P19)
- Aluminum Auxiliary Materials: The decline in both raw material prices has driven down costs, and the weak prebaked anode prices are unlikely to change in the short term (P22)
- Aluminum Scrap: In April, the supply of aluminum scrap remained tight, with supply rigidity competing against weak demand (P25)
- Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip: In April, the dual decline in the operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip highlighted overcapacity, and the weak oscillation pattern is unlikely to change in May (P28)
- Aluminum Foil: In April, the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry declined MoM. The fading peak season, coupled with trade frictions, makes it difficult to reverse the downturn in May (P30)
- Aluminum Extrusion: In April, the operating rate of industrial extrusions was under pressure. While infrastructure support and increased exports of building materials could not fully offset the insufficient overall demand momentum for extrusions (P32)
- Aluminum Wire and Cable: In April, the operating rate of aluminum wire and cable maintained a favorable trend, with new orders added for ultra-high voltage power transmission and transformation projects (P35)
- Aluminum Rod: In April, the supply side of aluminum rods fully recovered, with undersupply in the market driving processing fees to soar (P37)
- Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Due to shrinking demand and cost pressures, the operating rate of secondary aluminum declined in April, and ADC12 prices are expected to come under further pressure in May (P39)
For more details, please refer to the China Aluminum Monthly Report (Chinese) 20250407
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