Tug-of-war between longs and shorts in macro policies; iron ore price moves downwards after a higher opening and fluctuates considerably [SMM Brief Comment]

Published: May 7, 2025 17:23

Save

Today, DCE iron ore futures opened higher and then fluctuated downward, with the most-traded contract I2509 eventually closing at 708, up 0.35% for the day. Traders' enthusiasm for selling was moderate; steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with some purchasing as planned, resulting in a generally moderate market transaction atmosphere. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 760-765 yuan/mt, up 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices; in the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were approximately 770-780 yuan/mt, also up 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices.

This morning, at a State Council press conference, a series of macroeconomic stimulus policy packages were announced, significantly boosting market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the market once again received key signals indicating that the policy to reduce crude steel production was about to be implemented. Bulls and bears engaged in intense competition around policy expectations and fundamental logic, driving iron ore futures prices to fluctuate considerably. From a fundamental data perspective, according to the latest weekly survey by SMM, due to the postponement of maintenance plans at individual steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate among sampled steel mills reached 88.96%, up 0.07 percentage points WoW; the daily average pig iron production of sampled steel mills reached 2.4579 million mt, an increase of 4,400 mt WoW, continuing to maintain a high-level operation trend and providing bottom support for spot iron ore prices.

》Subscribe to view SMM's historical spot metal prices

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

5.8 SMM Global Steel Daily Report

[EU] European HRC buyers largely paused new bookings while waiting for clearer details on the EU’s upcoming import quota allocation system. Transactions in Northern Europe were reported at €670-690/t ex-works for July-August delivery, while Italian domestic offers remained around €700/t delivered. Downstream demand stayed weak amid high inventories across ports and supply chains. Import offers remained limited and mostly uncompetitive as Asian mills resumed operations with higher prices, narrowing the gap between domestic EU prices and import costs after including CBAM expenses.

1 hour ago

Forecast for Next Week: Ferrous Metals Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

1 hour ago

[SMM Zhangjiagang HRC Inventory] Zhangjiagang Inventory Declined WoW This Week

Zhangjiagang HRC port inventories stood at 316,000 mt this week, down 5,000 mt WoW, a decline of 1.56%; the YoY decline was 19.80% on a solar calendar basis and 22.93% on a lunar calendar basis.

1 hour ago