Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 7, 2025
In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened at 261,950 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day (260,970 yuan/mt). During the session, prices fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 264,000 yuan/mt. It closed at 260,560 yuan/mt at midday, with an intraday gain of 0.09%. Open interest increased by 2,529 lots, and market sentiment leaned towards caution.
Currently, tin ore supply remains constrained by the slow pace of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region and the phased resumption of production at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (restoring to 60%-70% of normal levels), resulting in only a marginal easing of the short-term ore supply tightness. Domestic refined tin production is constrained by raw material availability, with operating rates at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remaining low. Processing charges (TCs) are at historical lows, putting pressure on smelting profits. However, expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar are gradually strengthening, and supply increases after Q2 may limit the upside room for tin prices.
The US's 245% tariff policy on traditional solder exports continues to suppress demand (accounting for 40% of tin consumption), but some downstream processing enterprises have gradually resumed operations after the Labour Day holiday, releasing some demand for restocking at lower prices. Premium quotes in the spot market are diverging, but high-price transactions remain sluggish.
In terms of domestic macro policies, the accelerated construction of "East Data West Computing" hub nodes and the faster issuance of local government special bonds may potentially boost demand for industrial metals.
