Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract, April 25, 2025
As of midday on April 25, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) closed at 262,830 yuan/mt, up 1.14% from the previous day's settlement price. After the morning session opened, prices remained high and sideways, supported by expectations of easing tariffs between the US and China. Intraday trading volume reached approximately 60,200 lots, while open interest decreased by 4,542 lots compared to the previous day.
LME Tin Price: LME tin was quoted at $31,800/mt at midday, down 0.16%.
Partial Easing of Tariff Deadlock: US Treasury Secretary Besant emphasized in a closed-door meeting that "high tariffs between the US and China are unsustainable," which alleviated market concerns about an escalation of the trade war. However, a comprehensive agreement still requires time, and the policy vacuum period has led to increased volatility in tin prices.
PPI Data Disrupts Rate Cut Expectations: The US March PPI rose 3.2% YoY, exceeding expectations and reducing the likelihood of a US Fed rate cut in June. The rebound in the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices, but China's Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% and the central bank's accommodative policies have partially offset macro pressures.
Spot Trading Characteristics: Traders reported that pre-noon transactions were mainly "small orders for rigid demand," indicating limited acceptance of high prices. However, some downstream enterprises restocked at lower levels.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to trade in the range of 257,000-265,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon, while LME tin prices are expected to reference $31,500-32,500/mt.
