The supply of copper raw materials fell short of expectations, leading to a continuous reduction in copper anode inventories [SMM Analysis].

Published: Apr 18, 2025 17:18

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【SMM Analysis: Copper Raw Material Supply Falls Short of Expectations, Leading to Continued Depletion of Copper Anode Inventories】This week, the General Administration of Customs released the March copper concentrate import data. In March 2025, copper concentrate imports reached 2.394 million mt, up 2.7% YoY. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative copper concentrate imports totaled 7.108 million mt. Additionally, considering the domestic copper concentrate supply from January to March, the copper anode imports from January to February, the expected copper anode imports in March, the copper scrap imports from January to February, and the expected copper scrap imports in March, it appears that the copper raw material supply is inconsistent with SMM's cumulative copper cathode production of 3.194 million mt from January to March. In other words, both imported and domestic copper concentrate supplies fell short of expectations, imported copper anode did not exceed expectations, and copper scrap smelting volume also failed to provide sufficient support, yet copper cathode production remained consistently high.

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This week, the General Administration of Customs released the March copper concentrate import data. In March 2025, copper concentrate imports reached 2.394 million mt, up 2.7% YoY. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative copper concentrate imports totaled 7.108 million mt. Additionally, considering the domestic copper concentrate supply from January to March, the anode copper imports from January to February, the expected anode copper imports in March, the copper scrap imports from January to February, and the expected copper scrap imports in March, it appears that the raw material supply contradicts the cumulative copper cathode production of 3.194 million mt from January to March as reported by SMM. In other words, both imported and domestic copper concentrate supplies fell short of expectations, imported anode copper did not exceed expectations, and copper scrap smelting volume failed to provide sufficient support, yet copper cathode production remained consistently high.

SMM believes that the discrepancy is partly due to copper smelters utilizing copper-containing materials such as lead-zinc concentrates and gold concentrates to support some copper production, resulting in the continuous depletion of anode copper inventories in the supply-demand balance table.

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