【SMM Hot Topic】Tariff Game: What Is the Impact on Billet Exports?

Published: Apr 18, 2025 14:51

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In recent years, the domestic real estate market has taken a sharp downturn, and infrastructure has struggled to provide effective counterbalance. Overall demand for long products has been sluggish. In the domestic market environment characterized by cut-throat competition, steel mills have been actively seeking new avenues, setting their sights on overseas markets. From 2020 to 2024, billet exports have continuously increased, rising from the level of 10,000 mt to the level of 1 million mt...

1. Weak Domestic Demand, Surge in Billet Exports Over Five Years
In recent years, China's real estate market has taken a sharp downturn, and infrastructure has failed to provide effective counterbalance, leading to overall weak demand for long products. Amid the cut-throat competition in the domestic market, steel mills have sought new opportunities by targeting overseas markets. From 2020 to 2024, billet exports grew continuously, increasing from the 10,000 mt level to the million mt level. In 2024, total billet exports reached 6.338 million mt, up 93.3% YoY, accounting for 5.7% of total steel exports.

2. Coastal Ports as Fast Channels for Billet Exports
According to the SMM survey, billets are mainly exported from provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Hebei, and Guangxi, with key export ports including Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu, Caofeidian in Hebei, and Fangchenggang in Guangxi. Leveraging their coastal advantages, these ports have established a global billet export network, significantly driving the rapid development of China's billet export business.

3. Southeast Asia Becomes the "Main Base" for China's Billet Exports
In recent years, Southeast Asia has maintained strong momentum in real estate and infrastructure development, driving demand for long products. Compared to exporting finished products like rebar and wire rods, semi-finished billets offer greater plasticity. With local steel processing capabilities, imported billets can be further processed to meet diverse construction steel needs in the region. In 2024, China's billet exports were primarily directed to Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, accounting for 31.2% of total exports. Among these, exports to Indonesia reached 1.191 million mt, representing 18.8% of total exports, making it the largest destination for China's billet exports.

4. Tariff Disputes Have Not Directly Impacted Billet Exports
Recently, "tariff disputes" have become a global focus, with the US escalating tariffs on Chinese goods. On April 9, 2025, the US government announced a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%, effective immediately. On April 15, the White House issued a statement imposing additional tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese goods in response to China's "reciprocal tariff" measures. By region, direct exports of billets from China to the Americas accounted for only 7.76% in 2024, with almost no exports to the US. Therefore, the US tariff hikes have no direct impact on billet exports. However, they may negatively affect other steel exports, potentially leading to a shift from exports to domestic sales, increasing domestic steel supply pressure, and creating potential ripple effects on billet exports. For further details, follow SMM's ongoing updates.

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