SHFE copper opened higher in the morning, with intraday gains further expanding, closing up 2.06%. Recent easing of trade tensions, a significant weakening of the US dollar index, and continued destocking of domestic refined copper social inventory have sustained the rebound in SHFE copper.
Global trade tensions remain volatile, with market sentiment fluctuating accordingly. However, after a concentrated release of negative sentiment, the overall atmosphere has eased compared to earlier periods, coupled with the recent significant weakening of the US dollar index, providing support for the non-ferrous metals sector. On the macro front, Jinyuan Futures noted that the US has temporarily delayed tariff deadlines and expanded exemptions, while the cooling of core inflation in March has given the Federal Reserve room for interest rate cuts, improving market sentiment. The central bank is resolutely maintaining the stable operation of the capital market, and Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in the Chinese stock market.
Currently, domestic copper concentrate TCs remain low, and the tight ore supply is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Last week, domestic refined copper social inventory showed a notable destocking, and spot premiums once rose. However, with the recent rebound in copper prices, spot prices against futures have hovered around parity, and subsequent demand performance needs to be monitored. The latest data as of the beginning of the week shows that domestic refined copper social inventory continues to decline. Jinyuan Futures stated that the tight supply of concentrates is difficult to reverse, domestic production has rebounded MoM, low copper prices have stimulated active downstream procurement, and social inventory has quickly pulled back in the short term. Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise after confirming stage support.
