The tariff issue was gradually digested, and non-ferrous metals fluctuated rangebound. [Institutional Commentary]

【Copper】

On Friday, SHFE copper fluctuated and closed higher above 75,000 yuan, as the market assessed the positive inclination of China's tariff game with the US, and gold hit a new high. Recently, US copper inventories rose again, indicating that logistics are concentrated in the US. Short-term overseas market risk pricing has eased, but the actual systemic impact has not ended. Currently, copper prices are characterized by a rebound, and overseas investment banks have shifted the annual copper supply-demand balance to a surplus expectation. In the short term, there is support from US copper flows externally and tight domestic primary and secondary materials internally, but medium and long-term demand pricing and systemic impact account for a high proportion. LME copper tends to face strong resistance at $9,300, while SHFE copper is above 75,500-77,000 yuan. Rebound and short positions are recommended.

【Aluminum & Alumina】

Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound. Yesterday, aluminum ingot and billet social inventories decreased by 30,000 mt and 13,000 mt respectively compared to Monday, with total aluminum market inventories at a low level for the same period in recent years, indicating good apparent consumption and relatively strong fundamentals among non-ferrous metals. In the short term, macro factors dominate commodity trends, and the repeated US tariff policy has increased market volatility. SHFE aluminum is expected to mainly fluctuate above 19,000 yuan, testing the 20,000 yuan integer mark and annual line resistance. Spot alumina indices in various regions have successively fallen below 2,900 yuan, and increasing maintenance has improved the April balance, but it is difficult to change the surplus outlook. As companies gradually face cash losses, larger-scale production cuts are awaited. This week's low point in the futures market corresponds to cost expectations equivalent to ore falling to around $70, with alumina fluctuating weakly but limited downside potential.

【Zinc】

US tariff-related statements remain uncertain, and as the weekend approaches, funds are cautious, with SHFE zinc fluctuating rangebound. SMM zinc social inventories fell to 102,100 mt, with the 0-2 month price spread widening to 580 yuan/mt. Downstream rigid demand still supports the spot market, and pessimistic sentiment in the consumption side has somewhat recovered. In the short term, SHFE zinc may fluctuate in the 22,000-23,000 yuan/mt range, but the CZSPT group expects domestic ore TC to rebound to 4,500 yuan/mt in June, and imported ore TC to rebound to 60-70 $/dmt. After smelters turn profitable, expectations for production increases remain strong. The pressure for the zinc market's center to shift downward persists, and the strategy of rebounding and short positions continues.

【Lead】

US tariff policy remains uncertain, and pessimistic expectations in the consumption side have slightly recovered. Shorts reducing positions drove SHFE lead to rebound, with SMM 1# lead quotations against the near-month futures turning to a discount of 10 yuan/mt, and the price difference between primary metal and scrap maintained at 25 yuan/mt. SMM lead social inventories stood at 69,500 mt, with little overall change. With lead prices at low levels, primary and secondary lead smelters' reluctance to sell has increased, and some downstream buyers are cautious about price increases. However, overall consumption is in the off-season, providing limited support for high lead prices. After the inversion between primary and scrap lead was resolved, downstream buyers tend to purchase low-priced secondary lead, and lead ingot supply is not tight. SHFE lead is temporarily expected to fluctuate in the 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt range, with limited operability, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended.

【Nickel & Stainless Steel】

SHFE nickel's rebound was hindered and consolidated, with market trading being mediocre. Jinchuan premiums rebounded to 3,200 yuan, Russian nickel premiums were at 200 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel premiums were at 150 yuan. High-grade NPI prices retreated, and Indonesian ore still affects raw material pricing, with the latest quotation at 1,024 yuan per mtu, down 10 yuan for the week. In terms of inventories, NPI inventories fell by 2,500 mt to 20,000 mt, refined nickel inventories fell by 1,400 mt to 46,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories fell by 1,000 mt to 980,000 mt. Technically, SHFE nickel's rebound faces resistance in the 12.3-12.5 range, waiting for a better short position.

【Tin】

SHFE tin closed higher above 255,000 yuan, with domestic spot tin remaining relatively firm. Substantial tightness in tin resource supply is difficult to alleviate in April. Social inventories are expected to destock this week, and after large fluctuations, tin is attempting to fluctuate within a certain range, with a wait-and-see approach recommended.

(Source: SDIC Futures)