According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum in March increased MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, and the output from the resumption in February had been realized. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels in March, with the industry's liquid aluminum ratio rising by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, some downstream billet plants in Guangxi cut production, leading to a decline in the liquid aluminum ratio at local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum ratio data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt.
Capacity changes: By the end of March, SMM statistics showed that domestic aluminum existing capacity was approximately 45.81 million mt, and operating capacity was around 43.88 million mt. The industry's operating rate rose by 0.5 percentage points MoM and 2.8 percentage points YoY to 95.8%. Currently, aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Chongqing have largely resumed production. A smelter in Guangxi undergoing technological transformation is expected to resume production around October 2025, while another smelter in Guangxi that previously cut production due to losses has resumed operations. Additionally, a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Qinghai has started production, contributing to the growth momentum of future aluminum operating capacity.
Production forecast: Entering April 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to rise again as related companies reach full production. By the end of April, the annualized operating capacity of domestic aluminum is projected to slightly increase to 43.92 million mt/year. Aluminum prices are fluctuating at highs, while downstream demand has increased due to the peak season. However, under the pressure of end-user price reductions, processing fees for products like aluminum billets have declined, and losses in Guangxi's billet production have resurfaced. The liquid aluminum ratio in April may experience a slight correction to around 73%. Continued attention is needed on the resumption of aluminum capacity in various regions and the operating conditions of downstream liquid aluminum sectors such as billets.
