Copper Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back, Suppliers Stand Firm on Quotes for Shipments [SMM Secondary Copper Raw Material Weekly Review]

Published: Mar 28, 2025 11:10

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[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back, Suppliers Stand Firm on Quotes] Copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of Thursday's close, copper prices increased by only 10 yuan/mt. However, bare bright copper prices in Guangdong showed strong performance, rising by 400 yuan/mt, with Thursday's transaction prices ranging from 74,400 to 74,600 yuan/mt. Suppliers of secondary copper raw materials still insisted on large-scale shipments only after copper prices reached 83,000 yuan/mt. Therefore, when copper prices pulled back, suppliers generally chose to stand firm on quotes for shipments...

SMM March 28: Copper prices rose initially and then pulled back this week, with only a 10 yuan/mt increase by Thursday's close. However, Guangdong bare bright copper prices showed strong performance, rising by 400 yuan/mt, with Thursday's transaction prices ranging from 74,400-74,600 yuan/mt. Secondary copper raw material suppliers remained firm on large-scale shipments only when copper prices reached 83,000 yuan/mt, thus choosing to maintain firm offers during the price pullback.

On the import side, although the EU's new regulations on waste exports to non-EU countries have taken effect, domestic import traders indicated that this has had little impact on secondary copper raw material exports from Europe for now. However, due to global ore shortages, EU countries have imposed restrictions on the export of high-quality, high-grade secondary copper raw materials, forcing domestic importers to purchase copper wire nodules or brass scrap. Interviewed companies noted that the EU's new regulations primarily target solid waste, and since copper scrap falls under secondary copper raw materials, its export is not expected to be restricted. However, with the increase in local copper scrap recycling and processing enterprises in Europe, future copper scrap exports from Europe may trend downward.

According to secondary copper rod enterprise sample data on secondary copper raw material inventory, this week's raw material inventory stood at 5,700 mt, up 1,600 mt WoW. As copper prices jumped initially and then pulled back mid-week, secondary copper rod enterprises accelerated the transportation and settlement of copper raw materials to factories after early session orders. Despite the decline in copper prices, the purchase volume of secondary copper rod enterprises exceeded last week's level, indicating suppliers' concerns over potential inventory devaluation due to continuous price drops.

On the import side, feedback from Ningbo import traders suggested that adverse weather would affect vessel arrivals and customs clearance times, but the impact is expected to be no more than two days, thus having a negligible effect on secondary copper raw material imports. However, the volume of imported secondary copper raw materials remains low due to overseas macro events, and traders expect this situation to persist for some time.

This week, US #1 copper scrap CIF offers were at a discount of 75-80¢/lb against the COMEX 5M copper contract, while #2 copper scrap CIF offers were at a discount of 86-87¢/lb against the COMEX 3M copper contract. US brass scrap CIF offers had an LME coefficient of 65-66%, with fixed prices at $6,500-6,600/mt (limited transactions). Non-US Cu98.5% wire nodules CIF offers had an LME coefficient of 96-96.5%, and non-US bare bright copper CIF offers had an LME coefficient of 98-98.5% LME.

Looking ahead to next week, if Trump's tariffs on imported copper cathodes are implemented soon, it may drive copper prices to pull back, prompting secondary copper raw material suppliers to hold onto their stocks in the short term and wait for a rebound before selling.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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