Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,087.5/mt, hovering at highs during the Asian session and approaching the $2,100/mt level again. However, as the European session began, market concerns over the US imposing additional tariffs increased, and the US dollar index consolidated at highs. Longs gradually exited the market, leading to a step-by-step decline in LME lead, which erased the gains of the previous two days and finally closed at $2,040/mt, down 2.32%.
Overnight, dragged down by the decline in LME lead, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 17,530 yuan/mt and traded below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, consolidating near the 20-day moving average. The positive impact of tightening domestic supply was exhausted, and market concerns over the traditional consumption off-season weighed on SHFE lead, which saw its center of gravity shift downward, finally closing at 17,525 yuan/mt, down 0.54%. Its open interest fell to 52,546 lots, down 1,554 lots from the previous trading day.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotes
Macro: China's industrial profits above designated size fell 0.3% in January-February, narrowing the decline by 3.0 percentage points compared to last year. Profits in the automotive and electrical appliance industries surged, and manufacturing improved significantly. The EU and Canada hinted at retaliatory auto tariffs, with Trump warning that tariffs would "far exceed" current plans if they joined forces against the US. The Premier of Ontario, Canada, stated that the US Commerce Secretary indicated the US would fully or partially exempt Canadian auto tariffs. Musk said auto tariffs would have a "significant" impact on Tesla.
In the lead spot market yesterday, the overall center of gravity of SHFE lead gradually moved upward. Suppliers actively quoted and sold goods, with the sentiment to stand firm on quotes for cargoes self-picked up from production sites slightly easing. Spot order quotations were at premiums of 50-200 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead price, with the proportion of high premiums declining. In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai trading markets, quotations were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2504 contract. The difficulty of secondary lead smelters in selling goods increased, with some regions seeing expanded discounts of secondary refined lead quotations to discounts of 100 yuan/mt ex-factory against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream companies were not actively purchasing at month-end, with some hesitant to buy at high prices and adopting a wait-and-see approach. Spot order market transactions were sluggish.
Inventory: As of March 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 525 mt to 231,475 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory in five regions totaled 69,200 mt, down 4,800 mt from March 20 and down 2,700 mt from March 24.
》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, the US imposed additional auto tariffs, indirectly affecting the consumption expectations of lead-acid batteries and dampening market trading sentiment. SHFE lead open interest has been decreasing daily. Currently, domestic and overseas lead ingot inventory trends diverge, and the domestic lead market is expected to see both supply and demand decline in April. However, new secondary lead capacity is still expected to come online, and the supply-side increase poses a risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots in the future.
![Imported Refined Lead Arrivals Increase, Smelters Add New Maintenance Plans in April, Lead Prices Are Expected to Maintain a Fluctuating Trend in the Short Term [Brief Commentary on Lead Futures]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/LCtEk20251217171721.jpeg)
