SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Review: Weak Supply and Strong Demand, Social Inventory Reduction in Good Condition

Ø  HRC Weekly Balance

Ø  This week's production fluctuated rangebound WoW.

This week, some steel mills in north China and south China were still under maintenance, and HRC production fluctuated rangebound WoW.

Ø  This week, the decline in HRC social inventory accelerated.

This week, the HRC social inventory in 86 warehouses (large sample) nationwide, as surveyed by SMM, was 4.1936 million mt, down 257,400 mt WoW, a 5.78% WoW decline, and a 4.06% decline on a lunar YoY basis. The national social inventory continued to decline this week, with the decline expanding. By region, the declines in east China, south China, and north China were larger than those in central China and north-east China. In detail:

l  [Shanghai] This week, Shanghai inventory destocked.

This week, Shanghai HRC inventory was 35.46 mt, down 2.55 mt WoW, a 6.71% decline; the solar YoY decline was 9.61%, and the lunar YoY decline was 9.59%.

l  [Lecong] This week, Lecong inventory destocked significantly.

This week, Lecong HRC inventory was 92.41 mt, down 63,200 mt WoW, a 6.40% decline; the lunar YoY decline was 63,700 mt, a 6.45% decline.

l  [Zhangjiagang] This week, Zhangjiagang inventory declined slightly.

This week, Zhangjiagang HRC inventory was 419,000 mt, down 9,000 mt WoW, a 2.10% decline; the solar YoY decline was 2.33%, and the lunar YoY increase was 7.44%.

This week, the impact of maintenance significantly weakened, HRC supply fluctuated rangebound, futures rose and then fell during the period, market transactions experienced a surge, traders actively destocked, and the social inventory decline was favorable. Looking ahead, the number of rolling lines under maintenance or planned for maintenance in the short term is relatively small, supply resistance has rebounded, but the space will not expand quickly, while end-use demand release remains resilient.It is expected that the national social inventory will continue to destock in the short term.