As Q1 draws to a close, what is the pace of domestic zinc ore production resumption? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 26, 2025 18:59

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【SMM Analysis: As Q1 Nears Its End, What Is the Resumption Pace of Domestic Zinc Mines?】According to SMM, the year-end and the beginning of the year are the regular maintenance and shutdown periods for domestic lead and zinc mines. Affected by holidays and maintenance, the overall production dropped to a low level by the year-end. As Q2 approaches, some mines in the north that were previously shut down have gradually resumed operations. What is the current overall resumption pace? Will the rapid rebound in both domestic and international TCs impact the production schedule of miners this year...

SMM March 26 News: According to SMM, the year-end and the beginning of the year are the regular maintenance and shutdown periods for domestic lead and zinc mines. Affected by the holiday and maintenance, the overall production dropped to a low level at the end of the year. As Q2 approaches, some mines in the north that were previously shut down have gradually resumed operations. What is the current overall resumption pace? Will the rapid rebound in domestic and international processing fees affect the production schedule of miners this year?

I. Miners with Regular Chinese New Year Break and Maintenance Have Basically Fully Resumed
During the Chinese New Year, mines in multiple provinces in China experienced regular holidays or maintenance shutdowns. According to SMM, the overall shutdown duration ranged from 15 to 30 days, significantly impacting domestic zinc ore production. Subsequently, these mines began to resume production around the Lantern Festival, and after a period of operation, the overall production has now basically returned to pre-holiday levels, with the resumption pace meeting previous expectations.

II. Peak Resumption Period for Shutdown Mines in the North Approaches
In Q1, some mines in the northern part of China that were previously shut down also began to resume production. According to SMM's communication, mines in Qinghai, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia generally shut down from November to May of the following year. Currently, as Q1 nears its end, some miners expected to resume production in March have successfully restored output, and the resumption time for other mines that have not yet started remains as previously expected. The overall resumption progress is smooth, and the peak period for production recovery is approaching.

III. Domestic Miners' Production Schedule for This Year
From the production schedule perspective, the main increments in domestic mines this year come from two aspects: first, some mines that were put into operation last year continue to ramp up production this year, with the increment mainly from the domestic Huoshaoyun mine, which is expected to increase zinc concentrates production by about 80,000 mt (metal content) QoQ; second, some mines have completed infrastructure construction and are planned to be put into operation this year, which is expected to bring certain increments. Additionally, for other domestic mines, although the rapid rebound in domestic processing fees has led to a significant pullback in miners' profits, the overall level remains considerable, and the production enthusiasm of mines is still strong, with the production plan for this year showing relatively small QoQ changes.

In summary, with the resumption of domestic miners and the ramp-up of some mines, domestic zinc ore production is gradually recovering and is expected to reach the annual production peak in Q3, with the overall production increment likely to be around 100,000 mt.

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