Changes in Stainless Steel Import and Export Markets After Chinese New Year in February Global Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 23, 2025 19:45

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SMM Analysis: Changes in Stainless Steel Import and Export Markets After Chinese New Year in February 2025, Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues Globally In February 2025, the dynamics of China's stainless steel import and export markets showed that imports, influenced by the Chinese New Year holiday and downstream demand, decreased both MoM and YoY. The share of imports from Indonesia slightly declined, with varying changes in the volume of different product forms. Prices fluctuated rangebound due to raw material factors. On the export side, the volume dropped significantly MoM but increased YoY. The growth in demand from emerging sectors did not fully offset the impact of weakness in the construction industry. The international trade environment was complex, posing many challenges for exports. It is expected that there will be changes in both imports and exports of stainless steel in March, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance persisting globally.

SMM March 23 News, In February 2025, China's stainless steel import and export market was affected by the Chinese New Year, with both imports and exports down MoM.
I. Analysis of the Import Market
(1) Overall Scale and Trend
According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in February 2025 were 166,000 mt, down 2% MoM and 27% YoY. Imports from Indonesia in February reached 135,800 mt (excluding scrap), a sharp decrease of 32% YoY and a 2.5% decline MoM. This was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, during which companies halted operations, and logistics were restricted, significantly suppressing import demand. In terms of import share, Indonesian stainless steel accounted for 81.7% of total imports in February, slightly lower than 82% in January.
(2) Changes in Import Product Structure
By form, semi-manufactured product imports from Indonesia in February saw a significant reduction, down 46% MoM; hot-rolled products decreased 22% MoM and 60.3% YoY; while cold-rolled products showed a growth trend, up 16% MoM and 27.7% YoY. This structural change reflects the varying demand for different forms of stainless steel products in the domestic market.
(3) Impact Factors
Downstream Demand: In February, domestic downstream demand for stainless steel in China decreased, compounded by the Chinese New Year holiday, further reducing import demand. After the holiday, end-use demand recovered slowly, but overall growth was limited. The construction industry was weak, with new floor area expected to decline YoY, significantly inhibiting stainless steel consumption. Demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors increased, with NEVs and smart manufacturing becoming new growth points, though they have not yet significantly boosted import demand.
Raw Material Prices: Currently, high-grade NPI prices are rising, while high-carbon ferrochrome prices remain stable, affecting stainless steel price stability. Lacking sustained upward momentum, prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term, making the market more cautious in procurement. Given the expected downstream demand in Q2, stainless steel imports in March are expected to increase both YoY and MoM.
II. Analysis of the Export Market
(1) Overall Scale and Trend
According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in February 2025 were 337,000 mt, down 33% MoM and up 5% YoY. The significant MoM decline in exports was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with logistics and traders on break, slowing the export pace. The YoY growth indicates some resilience in overseas demand for Chinese stainless steel, showing that Chinese stainless steel products still have competitiveness in the international market.
(2) Changes in Export Product Structure
By form, raw material type products such as narrow strip, profiles, and tubes saw a decrease, while finished products surged 137% MoM. This change may be related to the phased demand for different forms of stainless steel products in the overseas market.
(3) Impact Factors
Overseas Demand Environment: In Q1, the construction industry was weak, somewhat inhibiting stainless steel consumption. Demand in other emerging sectors grew modestly, providing limited support to stainless steel demand.
International Trade Environment: In February 2025, the US imposed an additional 10% tariff on imported goods from China, which may affect the export volume of Chinese stainless steel materials to the US in the future. Additionally, the increase in local steel capacity in Southeast Asian countries has intensified supply-demand imbalances, leading to upgraded trade barriers, making the export environment for Chinese stainless steel more competitive.
In March, under the dual influence of the international situation, export tariffs, and the recovery of global downstream demand, stainless steel exports are expected to increase significantly. However, the long-term existence of global supply-demand imbalances will continue to impact China's stainless steel export market.
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