[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Supply Stable and Demand Up, Market Confidence Yet to Recover with Spot Rebar Fluctuating

Published: Mar 21, 2025 17:42

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[SMM Rebar Daily Review: Supply Stable and Demand Increasing, Market Confidence Needs to Recover with Spot Prices Fluctuating] This week, both futures and spot prices of rebar were weak. The most-traded contract fell below key support levels, and the average spot price dropped by 72 yuan/mt. Market confidence was slightly lacking, with speculative demand noticeably weakening while end-users mostly purchased as needed...

This week, both futures and spot prices for rebar were weak, with the most-traded contract breaking down. The average spot price fell by 72 yuan/mt, and market confidence was slightly lacking, with speculative demand significantly weakening while end-users mostly purchased as needed. On the supply side, there was a divergence in the operating rates of BF and EAF steel mills this week. With the major conference concluding, some blast furnaces that had been restricted due to environmental protection requirements resumed production. Coupled with moderate steel mill profits, long-process steel mills increased their production enthusiasm, leading to an increase in pig iron production. Short-process steel mills, however, saw a significant reduction in overall benefits due to falling finished product prices, resulting in a decrease in operating rates. Overall, building materials supply remained relatively stable. On the demand side, affected by weaker futures and spot prices, and influenced by funding, the recovery in demand intensity in the north was below expectations, with some end-users intentionally delaying purchases. This week, the national rebar inventory decreased slightly. Looking ahead, given the rapid price decline this week, further downside room is limited. It is expected that next week, the market will focus on restoring confidence, with spot prices fluctuating rangebound. The most-traded rebar contract RB2505 is likely to experience sideways movement within the 3100-3300 range next week.

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