Supply Increment Gradually Materializes Focus on Opportunities to Sell Zinc at High Prices [SMM Zinc Price Weekly Review]

Published: Mar 21, 2025 13:24

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[Supply Increment Gradually Materializes, Watch for Opportunities to Sell Zinc at Higher Prices] On the fundamentals side, Boliden announced on March 17 that the Odda smelter in Norway was officially completed, with its annual capacity increasing from 200,000 mt to 350,000 mt, largely in line with market expectations. ......

SMM February 21 News: Price: On the macro front, last week's US Fed interest rate meeting concluded with the Fed maintaining a 4.25%-4.5% interest rate, largely in line with market expectations. However, it was unexpected that from April, the pace of balance sheet reduction would slow down. This statement led the market to expect that the Fed will soon stop reducing its balance sheet, thus avoiding overly tight liquidity conditions. At the same time, the 2025 economic growth forecast was revised downward, and inflation expectations were raised. Tariff policies and geopolitical uncertainties remain, presenting a mixed macro picture. On the fundamentals side, on March 17, Boliden announced the official completion of the Odda smelter in Norway, increasing annual capacity from 200,000 mt to 350,000 mt, which was within market expectations. LME inventory continued to decline to around 155,000 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants still above 40%. However, the LME cash-3M contango widened again to over $30/mt; attention should be paid to changes in open interest. In terms of imports, due to the opening of the import window, fewer disruptions in overseas ore production, and the arrival of previously booked shipments, zinc concentrate imports reached 461,000 mt in February, significantly exceeding expectations. TC increased, and sulphuric acid prices also rose, leading to higher smelter profits, fewer maintenance shutdowns, and gradually realized increases in smelting output. Consumption is in a gradual recovery phase. It is understood that export orders for galvanized structural components have performed well, but zinc oxide orders have weakened. Overall, there has not been any outstanding performance yet. However, as zinc prices fell, downstream buyers became more active in buying the dip, leading to further destocking. Opportunities for selling at higher levels should be watched. (The above information is based on market exchanges and comprehensive assessments by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct advice for investment decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information, as any decisions made are unrelated to SMM.)》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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