Chinese Smelters Continue to Ramp Up Production, What Will Happen to China's Zinc Ore Imports in March? [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 20 News:

According to the latest customs data, 461,400 mt of zinc concentrates were imported in February 2025, up 16.28% (64,600 mt) MoM and up 83.73% YoY. The cumulative imports for January-February 2025 reached 858,300 mt, up 32.64% YoY.

By country, the top three sources of imports in February 2025 were: Peru with 106,400 mt, accounting for 23.05%; Australia with 97,400 mt, accounting for 21.11%; and Mexico with 31,400 mt, accounting for 6.8%. On a MoM basis, significant increases were seen from Peru, Mexico, and South Africa, while imports from Australia, Mongolia, and Chile decreased to varying degrees.

SMM believes that the noticeable increase in zinc concentrate imports during January-February 2025 can be attributed to the following reasons:

1. Seasonal factors led to increased demand for imported ore by smelters, coupled with production ramp-ups at the beginning of the year, driving continuous inflows of imported zinc ore.

2. In Q1 2025, there were few disruptions to overseas zinc mines, and with normal production and transportation, domestic zinc ore imports grew YoY.

Entering March, from a price advantage perspective, smelters prefer to purchase domestic ore. However, previously ordered imported zinc ore continues to arrive, and with the ongoing rebound in TC, smelters have a strong intention to further increase production. Therefore, the demand for ore is expected to rise MoM, but as domestic mines have not fully recovered, the pullback in March's imported zinc ore volume may be limited.