At the Beginning of 2025, Imports of Refined Zinc Increase Beyond Expectations Will This Trend Continue? [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 20, 2025 14:34

Save

Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations at the Start of 2025, Will the Trend Continue? According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in January 2025 were 39,700 mt, up 4,600 mt MoM and up 14,600 mt YoY. Refined zinc exports in January were 4,800 mt, resulting in a net import of 34,900 mt for the month. In February, refined zinc imports were 33,700 mt, down 6,100 mt or 15% MoM, and up 8,500 mt YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports for January-February were 73,400 mt, up 45.88% YoY. Refined zinc exports in February were 400 mt, leading to a net import of 33,300 mt for the month.

SMM March 20 Report: According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in January 2025 were 39,700 mt, up 4,600 mt MoM and up 14,600 mt YoY. Refined zinc exports in January were 4,800 mt, resulting in a net import of 34,900 mt. In February, refined zinc imports were 33,700 mt, down 6,100 mt or 15% MoM, and up 8,500 mt YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports for January-February were 73,400 mt, up 45.88% YoY. Refined zinc exports in February were 400 mt, leading to a net import of 33,300 mt.

The top three countries for refined zinc imports in January were Kazakhstan (39.61%), Australia (17.56%), and Iran (9.19%). In February, the top three were Australia (46.13%), Kazakhstan (41.44%), and Iran (5.46%).

In terms of country-specific import data, Kazakhstan and Australia remained in the lead, while imports from Iran, India, Spain, and Finland increased MoM. Regarding trade modes, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area accounted for over 35% of total imports in January and over 50% in February, with more goods flowing out from bonded areas. Additionally, the import window briefly opened in January, leading to a slight increase in spot orders, making the overall refined zinc import data for January and February higher than expected.

Entering March, overseas macro sentiment fluctuated, with the US dollar weakening, providing fundamental support to non-ferrous metals. Fundamentals side, Trafigura Nyrstar announced a 25% production cut at its Hobart zinc smelter in Australia, which produces around 250,000 mt annually, starting from April, reducing overseas supply. Meanwhile, LME inventory continued to decline, with the LME zinc warrant cancellation ratio remaining above 40%, indicating a stronger LME zinc price. Domestically, post-policy verification, high levels of zinc concentrate imports and the resumption of northern mines improved overall ore supply. Processing fees rose to over 3,200 yuan/mt (metal content). Refined zinc production in February was 481,000 mt, with an estimated 540,000 mt in March. Coupled with rising sulphuric acid prices, smelter profits increased, and planned maintenance was postponed, leading to continuous supply growth. On the demand side, consumption is still gradually recovering, and the increase in demand cannot fully match the supply increase, resulting in relatively weaker SHFE zinc prices. Overall, it is expected that under the scenario of LME outperforming SHFE, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio will continue to fall, and the import window will remain closed, with refined zinc imports potentially dropping to around 20,000 mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

9 hours ago

How Are Expectations for China’s Galvanized Sheet Exports in March Amid Continued Turmoil in the Middle East?

According to the latest customs data, galvanized sheet exports stood at 926,600 mt in January 2026 and 1.1677 million mt in February, bringing cumulative exports in January-February to 2.0942 million mt, down 0.14% YoY. China’s total galvanized sheet exports in January-February this year were basically flat YoY. .

9 hours ago

13 hours ago

South Korea to Exempt Tariffs on Overseas-Sourced Critical Minerals

On the 25th, it was confirmed that the South Korean government will exempt tariffs of 3–8% on critical minerals such as lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements when domestically owned companies directly produce and import them from overseas. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy has pre-announced a new regulation outlining tariff exemptions for overseas resource development projects. Under the policy, a total of 14 critical minerals—including lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, zinc, and rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, and scandium—will be eligible for duty exemption when brought into the country. The regulation is set to take effect on April 3.

13 hours ago

15 hours ago

Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Mar 26)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 26 Mar , 2026

15 hours ago