SMM, March 7: Antimony prices continued to rise this week, with manufacturers persistently raising quotes to achieve the goal of holding back sales. Speculative funds were also actively involved in standing firm on quotes, with a clear intention from suppliers to support prices, and bullish voices were prevalent in the market. However, trading performance in the domestic antimony end-use market showed slight variations. Many manufacturers reported weak consumption orders on the end-use demand side, with downstream sectors such as flame retardants and PV showing low buying interest and poor orders. Nevertheless, rigid orders were forced to be placed as prices rose. This resulted in a noticeable disparity in the price increase rates between antimony ingots and antimony trioxide, with the former rising faster. Due to expectations of tighter export controls, the midstream and downstream markets remained cautious about future price trends. However, under the collective effort of suppliers to support prices, antimony product prices still saw significant increases. As of now, SMM's average antimony prices are as follows: 2# low-bismuth antimony ingot at 157,000 yuan/mt, 1# antimony ingot at 161,000 yuan/mt, 0# antimony ingot at 165,000 yuan/mt, and 2# high-bismuth antimony ingot at 154,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, this week's antimony trioxide market prices, as of now, are: 99.5% at 135,000 yuan/mt and 99.8% at 144,000 yuan/mt. Some market participants indicated that current antimony prices have reached the peak levels of 2024. Although the upward trend in antimony ingot prices may continue, the overall demand remains weak, particularly with the possibility of a significant decline in PV demand. The extent of future price increases and resistance remains to be seen.
On the news front, according to SMM's assessment, China's sodium pyroantimonate Grade 1 production in February 2025 is estimated to have dropped sharply by approximately 23.5% MoM. This consecutive sharp decline is considered normal by many market participants, as the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of February led to maintenance or temporary shutdowns in the first half of the month for many manufacturers. Additionally, due to the current pressure from downstream glass orders, many sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers showed little interest in signing orders with glass factories. However, some manufacturers indicated that production might slightly recover in March. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 11 surveyed entities, 2 manufacturers were in a state of shutdown or adjustment in February, while the production of other sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers mostly saw significant reductions, with no manufacturers reporting increased production. This led to another sharp decline in overall production. Market participants expect that national sodium pyroantimonate production in March is unlikely to see a significant increase compared to February, with a higher likelihood of remaining flat or continuing to decline slightly. Additionally, according to SMM's assessment, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingots, crude antimony converted, antimony cathode, etc.) production in February 2025 decreased by 7.84% MoM. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed entities by SMM, 18 manufacturers were shut down, an increase of 5 compared to the previous month; 12 manufacturers reduced production, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous month; and 3 manufacturers maintained normal production, unchanged from the previous month. Antimony ingot production in February declined again following the decrease in January. Many market participants considered this normal, as the Chinese New Year holiday in early February and the post-Lantern Festival period saw many enterprises undergoing maintenance or temporary shutdowns in the first half of the month. Furthermore, the inability of many overseas ore sources to enter the domestic market, coupled with the suspension of mining activities in northern regions during winter, has led to relatively tight domestic raw material supply. Many manufacturers indicated that production might recover to some extent in March as the weather warms. Market participants expect that national antimony ingot production in March 2025 is highly likely to rebound compared to February, though remaining flat is also possible, while a further slight decline is less likely.
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