Macro Sentiment Bearish, SHFE Zinc Declines [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, Trump stated that Canada's imposition of retaliatory tariffs on the US would immediately trigger the US to "impose equivalent reciprocal tariffs." The US Department of Commerce indicated that Trump might compromise on tariffs with Canada and Mexico. Zelensky expressed Ukraine's willingness to initiate peace talks under US leadership as soon as possible, with a mineral agreement ready to be signed at any time. Russian President Putin has agreed to act as a mediator in nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. The interest rate futures market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the US Fed in 2025. Germany's CDU Chairman Merz announced the establishment of a €500 billion special defense fund. The Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-circumvention investigation into certain US optical fiber products. China imposed an additional 15% tariff on US chicken and cotton, and a 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, and beef.

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,836/mt. In the early session, LME zinc fluctuated along the daily average line. During European trading hours, bears entered the market, driving LME zinc down sharply to a low of $2,807/mt. Later, as bears took profits and exited, LME zinc rebounded during the night session, reaching a high of $2,845.5/mt. However, the 5-day moving average formed resistance, and the center of LME zinc gradually pulled back, fluctuating near $2,816/mt before closing down at $2,836/mt, a decrease of $18.5/mt or 0.65%. Trading volume decreased to 9,682 lots, while open interest increased by 2,666 lots to 226,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a long bearish candlestick. The slowdown in US economic data growth and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the US, which would immediately trigger equivalent reciprocal tariffs, led to concerns over a new round of trade conflicts, suppressing the performance of base metals. The center of LME zinc shifted downward and is expected to continue fluctuating.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2504 contract opened at 23,730 yuan/mt. In the early session, SHFE zinc briefly climbed, reaching a high of 23,795 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as shorts increased their positions, SHFE zinc fell below the daily average line, hitting a low of 23,570 yuan/mt near the session's end. It ultimately closed down at 23,615 yuan/mt, a decrease of 65 yuan/mt or 0.27%. Trading volume decreased to 50,968 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,027 lots to 85,200 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick. The 5-day moving average provided support below, while the 10-day and 20-day moving averages formed resistance above. Macro sentiment remained bearish, with concerns over a new round of tariffs fueling fears of trade conflicts. From a fundamental perspective, there are no significant imbalances in supply and demand, and zinc prices are expected to primarily fluctuate and consolidate.