Global Copper Cathode Production Is Expected to Polarize [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 2, 2025 20:13

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[SMM Analysis: Global Copper Cathode Production Expected to Polarize] The topic of production cuts at Chinese copper smelters has remained a hot issue. In fact, since the end of 2023, some small and medium-sized smelters have been implementing indirect production cuts by reducing the efficiency of copper concentrate feeding, shutting down production lines, lowering the grade of copper concentrate fed into furnaces, and increasing the proportion of copper-containing materials fed into furnaces.

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The topic of production cuts at global copper smelters has remained a hot issue. Since the end of 2023, some small and medium-sized smelters have implemented disguised production cuts by reducing copper concentrate feeding efficiency, shutting down production lines, lowering the grade of copper concentrates fed into furnaces, and increasing the proportion of copper-containing materials in the feed.

Currently, the overall copper cathode production in China and other countries is expected to polarize. In China, copper cathode production has been steadily increasing, with monthly production exceeding 1 million mt. In February, SMM China's copper cathode production reached 1.0582 million mt, up 44,400 mt (4.38% MoM) and up 11.35% YoY, exceeding the expected 1.0554 million mt by 2,800 mt. March domestic copper cathode production is expected to reach 1.1002 million mt, up 42,000 mt (3.97% MoM) and up 100,700 mt (10.08% YoY). In other countries, the disruption rate of copper cathode production is expected to increase gradually, with incidents such as the shutdown of the refining system at the Philippines' Parsa smelter, nationwide power outages in Chile affecting copper cathode production, delays in copper cathode output at Indonesia's Manyar smelter, and escalating conflicts in the DRC adding uncertainty to copper cathode production.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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