In February, the national NPI metal content decreased by approximately 8.24% MoM, while in March, the metal content is expected to increase by approximately 0.97% MoM [SMM Analysis].

SMM reported on February 28 that

in February 2025, China's NPI production (physical content) decreased by approximately 11.38% MoM, while metal content fell by about 8.24% MoM. Both physical content and metal content of NPI continued to decline compared to the previous month, primarily due to fewer production days in February. Additionally, the ongoing rainy season in the Philippines kept nickel ore prices firm, weakening production incentives for smelters. Some production lines in certain regions underwent maintenance, further reducing output. Meanwhile, both physical content and metal content of low-grade NPI also declined, impacted by weak downstream demand and production adjustments by certain smelters. Furthermore, some integrated stainless steel mills entered a phase of maintenance for certain production lines due to losses in 200-series stainless steel, leading to a drop in low-grade pig iron output. In February, both high-grade and low-grade NPI metal content experienced declines.

In March 2025, China's NPI production (physical content) is expected to increase by approximately 4.83% MoM, with metal content rising by about 0.97% MoM. According to the SMM survey, domestic high-grade NPI smelters are operating with low raw material inventories, and the release of Philippine nickel ore will still depend on the end of the rainy season. High-grade NPI metal content is expected to decrease by about 0.52% MoM in March compared to February. On the other hand, with the gradual recovery of the stainless steel market, 200-series production is expected to increase, leading to a rise in integrated low-grade NPI metal content compared to February. Overall, domestic NPI metal content is expected to increase in March.