Costs Ease but Support Remains Firm, Companies Face Profitability Challenges [SMM Prebaked Anode Weekly Review]

SMM, February 27:

Raw material side: In the petroleum coke market, refinery shipments during the week remained mixed, with downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Petroleum coke prices showed a divergent trend. Specifically, refineries under CNOOC reported average shipments during the week, with petroleum coke prices remaining stable to slightly declining. The latest bidding prices dropped by 0-220 yuan/mt, with current refinery prices ranging from 5,500-5,750 yuan/mt. Refineries under PetroChina in north-east China, with low inventory levels, performed well in shipments, and petroleum coke prices were largely stable, currently quoted at 5,510-6,000 yuan/mt. As for Sinopec, downstream purchasing enthusiasm led to moderate refinery shipments, with petroleum coke prices slightly increasing by 20-50 yuan/mt. Additionally, local refineries showed average shipment performance, with petroleum coke prices weakening throughout the week. Currently, the average price of petroleum coke at local refineries is approximately 2,956 yuan/mt, down 4.65% MoM. In the coal tar pitch market, prices showed slight stability with an upward trend. As of Thursday, SMM data indicated that the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,612 yuan/mt, up 7.37% MoM. Overall, although petroleum coke prices slightly declined recently, the cost side support for prebaked anodes remained particularly strong.

Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises mostly arranged production based on orders, with overall supply remaining relatively sufficient. According to SMM surveys, the impact of environmental protection factors on prebaked anode enterprises has significantly diminished, and some enterprises are gradually resuming production rhythms. It is expected that prebaked anode supply will increase slightly this month. On the demand side, the operating capacity of the domestic aluminum industry steadily increased. Although the growth was relatively small, it injected positive momentum into the domestic market demand for prebaked anodes, with demand showing an optimistic performance.

Brief comment: In terms of market dynamics, the petroleum coke market showed a slight downward trend this week, particularly with significant price declines at local refineries. This price fluctuation caused some loosening in the production costs of prebaked anodes. According to SMM data, as of February 27, the cost of prebaked anodes in China had dropped to 6,061 yuan/mt, down 0.87% compared to the Thursday before the holiday. Notably, according to SMM, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company has finalised the sales price for prebaked anodes in March 2025, up 1,381 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, the tender price for March from a major aluminum enterprise in Shandong has not yet been finalised. However, preliminary information indicates that the tender price has not fully adjusted in line with raw material market fluctuations. This situation poses significant challenges for prebaked anode enterprises in terms of cost control and profit margins, and future market trends will require close monitoring.

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