Manganese Ore Shipments Decrease: Future Price Trends [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 19, 2025 17:45

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【SMM Analysis: Reduced Manganese Ore Shipments, Future Price Trends】 As of this Wednesday, northern ports: Australian lump at 49-49.5 yuan/mtu; Australian fines at 41.5-42 yuan/mtu; South African semi-carbonate at 38-38.5 yuan/mtu; Gabonese ore at 47-49 yuan/mtu; South African high-iron ore at 30-30.5 yuan/mtu. Southern ports: Australian lump at 44.5-45 yuan/mtu; Australian fines at 42.5-43 yuan/mtu; South African semi-carbonate at 36.5-37 yuan/mtu; Gabonese ore at 44-46 yuan/mtu; South African high-iron ore at 29.5-30 yuan/mtu. According to market information, CML's manganese ore shipments from Australia may be delayed from February to March due to the impact of a cyclone. Currently, flooding in Australia has disrupted inland transportation, and local mines have suspended operations. Additionally, market sources indicate that Comilog's Gabonese manganese ore terminal will undergo maintenance from February to early March, which is expected to reduce manganese ore shipments in the future. In terms of supply, future manganese ore shipments are expected to decrease slightly. Furthermore, port manganese ore inventory remains relatively low, suggesting a relatively tight supply of manganese ore in the future. Coupled with concentrated manganese ore ownership at ports and limited market circulation, large miners exhibit a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. In terms of demand, downstream alloy plants continue to operate at low rates, showing cautious procurement of manganese ore and low acceptance of high-priced manganese oxide ore. Particularly in south China, alloy plants face high production costs due to expensive manganese ore, and previously idled alloy plants show weak willingness to resume production. Additionally, alloy plants had sufficient manganese ore stockpiling before the Chinese New Year, leading to weak procurement enthusiasm at present.

SMM February 19 News:
As of this Wednesday, northern ports: Australian lump ore at 49-49.5 yuan/mtu; Australian fines at 41.5-42 yuan/mtu; South African semi-carbonate ore at 38-38.5 yuan/mtu; Gabonese ore at 47-49 yuan/mtu; South African high-iron ore at 30-30.5 yuan/mtu. Southern ports: Australian lump ore at 44.5-45 yuan/mtu; Australian fines at 42.5-43 yuan/mtu; South African semi-carbonate ore at 36.5-37 yuan/mtu; Gabonese ore at 44-46 yuan/mtu; South African high-iron ore at 29.5-30 yuan/mtu.

According to market sources, manganese ore shipments from CML Australia may be delayed in February-March due to the impact of a cyclone. Currently, flooding in Australia has disrupted inland transportation, and local mines have suspended operations. Additionally, market sources indicate that Comilog Gabon manganese ore will undergo terminal maintenance from February to early March, which is expected to reduce manganese ore shipments in the future.

In terms of supply, future manganese ore shipments are expected to decrease. Moreover, port manganese ore inventory remains relatively low, suggesting a potential supply shortage in the future. Coupled with concentrated ownership of manganese ore at ports, market circulation of manganese ore is tight, and large miners have a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes.

In terms of demand, downstream alloy plants maintained low operating rates and were cautious in manganese ore procurement, showing low acceptance of high-priced manganese oxide ore. Particularly in south China, alloy plants faced high production costs due to expensive manganese ore, and previously suspended alloy plants showed weak willingness to resume production. Furthermore, alloy plants had sufficient manganese ore stockpiles before the Chinese New Year, leading to weak current procurement enthusiasm.

Currently, the manganese ore market is experiencing a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. On the supply side, miners showed weak willingness to sell at low prices, while on the demand side, alloy plants were slow to follow up on actual transactions and mostly bargained down purchasing prices for manganese ore. Manganese ore prices are expected to face upward pressure in the future, with spot prices likely to fluctuate downward.

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