SMM Morning Comment: Alumina Capacity to Rise, Market Loose, Eyes on Exports and Supply Factors

Published: Feb 13, 2025 09:04

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SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Overall, in the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to continue increasing, and the spot market for alumina remains relatively loose compared to earlier periods. Domestic alumina prices continue to decline, while overseas spot alumina transaction prices have stabilized. Model calculations show that imported alumina losses exceed 1,000 yuan, and the domestic alumina export window may gradually open. In the short term, there are no clear expectations for production cuts in alumina, and supply remains unchanged. Some aluminum production cuts or technological transformation capacities in south-west China may gradually resume production, with demand rebounding slightly. However, this is unlikely to reverse the relatively loose supply pattern in the spot alumina market. Moving forward, attention should be paid to domestic alumina exports, bauxite prices, and supply conditions.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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