DeepSeek: The Impact of the US Imposing a 10% Tariff on China's Steel Industry and Iron Ore Market

Published: Feb 7, 2025 10:43

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The impact of the US imposing a 10% tariff on China on the Chinese iron ore market can be analyzed from the following aspects:

The impact of the US imposing a 10% tariff on China on the Chinese iron ore market can be analyzed from the following aspects:

1. Short-Term Demand Fluctuations
Expectations for production cuts at steel mills: If exports are hindered, leading to a decline in domestic steel prices, some steel mills may voluntarily cut production, suppressing iron ore demand in the short term.
Inventory cycle adjustments: Steel mills may delay restocking iron ore, driving down port spot prices (e.g., the 62% Fe spot price at Qingdao Port may temporarily drop to $90-95/mt).

2. Long-Term Structural Changes
Regional capacity transfer: Chinese steel mills may increase investments in overseas bases in Southeast Asia and Africa (e.g., Tsingshan's Indonesia industrial park and HBIS's Serbian steel mill), boosting local iron ore demand and indirectly supporting global ore prices.

Steel scrap substitution effect: The proportion of domestic electric furnace steelmaking may increase, reducing reliance on iron ore (in 2023, China's electric furnace steel accounted for about 10%; if this rises to 15%, annual iron ore demand could decrease by approximately 50 million mt).

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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