In December, China's total ferronickel imports reached 995,100 mt, up 12.7% MoM [SMM Analysis].

SMM, January 20 -

According to customs data, China imported a total of 995,100 mt of ferronickel in December 2024, up 12.7% MoM and 21.7% YoY. In terms of metal content, the total ferronickel imports in December amounted to 124,900 mt (Ni contained), up approximately 14.1% MoM and 17.3% YoY.

By category, December imports of NPI and FeNi showed mixed trends. NPI imports hit a record high of 969,900 mt, approaching the million-mt level, up approximately 13.4% MoM and 24.4% YoY. Regarding domestic trade of Indonesian nickel ore in December, with the addition of temporary quotas, NPI smelters maintained sufficient raw material inventory. Moreover, under the new RKAB policy, which prohibits carrying over unused nickel ore quotas to the following year, nickel ore transactions in Indonesia were active, with premiums slightly declining. On the other hand, LME nickel prices experienced a phased decline, leading to a reduction in HPM prices for Indonesian nickel ore MoM in December. This eased the cost line for NPI smelters, and some enterprises saw expanded profits, boosting production momentum. Consequently, Indonesia's total NPI production in December increased significantly. From the demand side, Indonesia's stainless steel production in December saw a slight decline, partly due to demand being partially fulfilled before Christmas overseas. Additionally, with NPI profits recovering, integrated RKEF production lines reduced crude steel output to increase total NPI production. In December, domestic top-tier stainless steel enterprises showed robust production growth, driven by the need to meet annual crude steel production targets and fulfill orders from some stainless steel mills. Coupled with the expanded economic advantage of NPI over stainless steel scrap during the month, reliance on Indonesian NPI increased. In terms of import rhythm, as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, transportation slowed, and some domestic enterprises brought forward their raw material stocking demand, resulting in a significant increase in December import volumes.

For FeNi, December imports totaled 25,200 mt, down 7.6% MoM and 33.8% YoY. In terms of metal content, imports amounted to 6,600 mt (Ni contained), down approximately 4% MoM and 30.7% YoY. By country, December's import growth was concentrated in Colombia and Brazil, with MoM increases of approximately 31% and 12.7%, respectively. In contrast, imports from New Caledonia and South Korea declined sharply, down approximately 15.6% and 34.6% MoM, respectively. According to the SMM survey, due to falling nickel prices, overseas FeNi smelters have been operating at a loss for an extended period. Currently, Glencore's FeNi smelting project in New Caledonia has been suspended, leaving only Eramet's FeNi project in New Caledonia and some earlier inventory available for export to China. Meanwhile, FeNi production projects in Brazil and Colombia are also expected to scale down production, and FeNi imports to China are anticipated to remain at low levels in the future.

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